12 - 16 May

The pair reversed since Monday and was going sideways for the rest of the week. The 13 and 21 EMA cross gave late signals in this situation while the 5 and 13 EMA cross generate better entry signals. I lose 298 pips this week :P I closed 2 short positions near that red arrow on Friday, just before the price went back down :( GBP/USD resistance is at 1.9630 and USD/JPY resistance is at 104.50, so I expect GBP/JPY will fall next week:) Well that is all have a nice weekend guys!

Previous Week

Daily Breakout Backtest

I made back testing on GBP/JPY for the Daily breakout system regarding my post about the system. The data start from 4 September 2000 (ODL Metatrader). I test for 10 pips target from 1 pip above the previous day high and 1 pips below the previous day low. So there are 3 summaries, whether the price reach target, breakout but didn't reach the target, or no breakout. You can download the excel sheet here.

5 - 9 May

I said on my previous post that I want to use the EMA. I also said that a good trend can last for few days. Well, it has been a good week. The 13 EMA cross the 21 EMA on Monday from above and it remain below the 21 EMA until the end of the week. And because the price kept on falling, some of my entries were based on trendline breakout. Ok, that's all. Have a nice weekend.

Previous Week

Moving Average Based System

I always like Moving Averages. I am currently using the 5, 13, and 21 EMA. I always tried to find my preference of EMA. I tried 89, 200, 55, 28, and other MA period that people use. But, unlike other MA based system, I don't combine oscillator indicator. Actually I do, but I somehow overlook the oscillator very often. ;P

Well, as you know, MA based system is quite frustrating in sideways market. And since I am lack in using oscillator as confirmation, I use more MA instead. In the 5, 13, and 21 EMA system that I favor now, the 13 and 21 is the confirmation. In the GBP/JPY hourly chart, these EMAs crossed at least once a day, meaning that the 1 hour trend changes once a day. A good trend can last for few days.

For entries, I use the 5 EMA and trendlines. After I enter when the price touch the 13 or the 21 EMA and close back crossing the 5 EMA.

Profit target seems to be a problem for me. To get the maximum profit, I should have follow the trend. But, after 50 pips, I cannot help myself to close my position. :P So I guest 50 pips is my target.

Another problem is stop loss. Well I'm not a stop loss master so I think for the moment my stop loss is either previous high/low or when the opposite signal appears. I am reading about stop loss with ATR (Average True Range) based but I'll use the previous high/low for now. Oh and please share your own preference of Moving Average and how you use it. Okay that is all guys. Bye.. :)