GBP/JPY Update: Hourly, H4 and Daily Charts

The pair is at support, almost touch 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 118.8 to 163.06 at 146.16. The outlook remain bearish as long it stay below channel. Getting back inside the channel will turn the outlook to short term retracement to test the resistance. Target remains at 50% Fibonacci level at 141 area. Cable has been moving in negative correlation with USD/JPY most of this week, and we saw GBP/JPY stucked in between, resulting in volatile swings. Therefore, we need careful approach for the pair.

GBP/JPY D1 Chart

GBP/JPY H1 Chart

GBP/JPY H4 Chart

GBP/JPY H1 Chart: Sell Again

Above is the updated screenshot of my last analysis for GBP/JPY in hourly TF (see post). The pair touch the resistance trendline again and I took it as entry signal for another short position. I also add outer trendline to measure the deviation. This can be the tolerance limit for SL if the pair break the inner trendline.

Looking at yesterday's performance of GBP/JPY, the sellers lose the ground after the pair touch 150.16 with another low at 150.05 after a few candles. The sterling had been in favor through the Europe and US sessions. As for today, well, we'll see.. :)

Entry: EUR/USD Short

The pair touched 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3391 to 1.2881 just and bounced for 50 pips now. I sell the pair at 1.3225 with Stop Loss around 1.3400 area and targeting it lower trendline around 1.2550 area. However, first support might be seen at 1.312x area near 50% Fibonacci level (see H1 chart). I'm not really sure if the pair has found its peak actually, but I have my Stop Loss. And I have to take risk right? :)

Daily Chart

H1 Chart

Closed: The Shorts Went Good

I closed the GBP/JPY position at 149.15 after it touch the lower channel on hourly chart. The pair broke the channel literally a few seconds after I closed it :P I quickly opened another position and closed it with 66 pips. So, it turned out that the second attempt to sell GBP/JPY ended well. As I mentioned in my previous post, the target can be more way down at 145.50 or 143.60 area. So I will look for 30 EMA signal on hourly chart to enter another short position.

GBP/JPY H1 Chart

I also entered EUR/USD after I realized that the price was near 1.3587, which is 50% Fibo retracement (yellow) of 1.4718 (December high) to 1.2456 (March low). The pair broke a minor trendline on hourly chart and I closed it at 1.3406, few pips above 38.2% retracement (blue) of 1.3113 (March 30 low) to today's high at 1.3580. There is a long signal on 4 hour chart actually with stop loss around 1.3265 but I think I'll wait until the pair touches or near another trendline below. Below is the chart. Happy trading!

EUR/USD H1 Chart

Entry: GBP/JPY Second Attempt

The pair broke 148.30 resistance and went as high as 150.70 for now. I had closed my position from last Friday with 169 pips loss. I spotted another resistance on weekly chart and decided to give it another try. The pair has touch the 30 EMA on weekly chart at 150.75. My entry point was 150.40. The pair also at the upper channel on 1 hour chart. Below are the weekly and hourly chart.

50% fibonacci retracement of 118.80 (January low) to 150.72 is at 134.72. On hourly chart, 50% fibonacci retracement of 135.70 to 150.72 is at 143.21. However, 148 (broken resistance) and 145 (March high) area have to be broken first.

Weekly Chart

H1 Chart

That is all for now. Happy trading guys!

Entry: GBP/JPY at Resistance

Ok, this is definitely my last entry this week. GBP/JPY is at one of its previous highs at 148.58. The pair also almost reach 30 EMA on weekly chart. I entered short looking for 200 pips with stop loss at the resistance area. That's all. Bye.

Entry: EUR/USD Short For 50% Fibonacci Retracement

It turned out that I was not done for this week :P I entered short on EUR/USD last night. The pair touched its channel resistance and has been moving sideways. I entered at 1.3478 with stop loss around 1.3520. 38.2% retracement is at 1.3382 which is 100% projection of A to B while 50% retracement (1.3340) is at the broken resistance. I pretty sure this is my last trade this week. I also look forward on how the market react after tonight news. That's all guys. I'll update later. Happy trading!

Closed: EUR/USD Reach Target

The pair has reach my target at 1.3400 after the EU bid rate come out higher than expected (although they still cut by 25 basis point). At the moment, EUR/USD has gone as high as 1.3492. The pair might continue moving up now with support at 1.3340. So, I may done for this week, considering NFP news tomorrow. That's all.. :)

Entry: EUR/USD Bounce From 50% Retracement

The pair bounced off the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2481 to 1.3737 last week and still hold the support. Higher lows has been formed since then. I have made some trade with entries at the support trendline. Buy signal appears today based on the 30 EMA system on hourly chart. However, TP level will be higher this time. Instead of fixed target of 65 pips, I want to try 1.34 and hopefully will be done this week. Below is the screen shot.

H1 Chart

H4 Chart

On daily chart, the 30 EMA which is near the 50% Fibo level seems to provide strong support. In other words, it is a buy signal also! :P I think EU may test the previous high or that resistance trendline at 1.3737, but 1.3400 is fine for me :)

D1 Chart

Closed: GBP/JPY

My GBP/JPY position was closed with 145 pips. The target was actually much farther than that, but I forgot to change the take profit order. I was kinda confused with the original TP for 30 EMA system. It was a great price to buy actually and should be around 500 pips now. Well, the trade had been made and now I will focus on the 30 EMA system on 1 hour again.

Entry: GBPJPY Buy Signal

I entered GBP/JPY at 136.69 (yellow circle), based on the 30 EMA system on daily time frame. The pair also touched the support trendline (magenta) at 135.70 area and bounce for almost 200 pips at the moment. Retest to 135.70 area is very possible. The first target upside is the 38.2% retracement of 215.85 to 118.80 at 155.87. Next target are 50% retracement at 167.32 and 61.8% retracement at 178.78. Stop loss level is below the trendline.

Update: GBP/USD Closed 510 Pips

After pushing 900 pips on Tuesday, GBP/USD fell on the remaining days this week. The pair is now at the 30 EMA on Daily chart. I decided to exit the position with 510 pips and open again at 1.4330. It is a good entry signal I think: price at 30 EMA and QQE cross down. Stop loss also has move to 1.4000. Target remain at 1.6200-1.6428 (38.2% Fibo retracement). Another levels of retracement are 1.7331 (50%) and 1.8235 (61.8%). However, there are

Entry: Added GBPUSD to the Portfolio

GBPUSD touch 1.3654 this week but soon bounced to 1.38 area. I opened a position at 1.3812 with Stop Loss at 1.3494 low. I think it's a good price to buy the pair. First target will be 38.2% retracement area around 1.6428 and 50% retracement level around 1.7331 next. 13 EMA has just crossed above the 21 EMA on 4 hour time frame but the QQE indicator hasn't completely cross above the 50 level. Below is the picture.

Update: Re-entered EU Long

Here is a funny story. Remember that I mentioned something about opening positions on E/U and G/U? I just found out that I didn't. Actually I did, but they are on virtual..lol.. In fact, all other trade I made this week was on virtual. See I re-install my OS last weekend and had to re-install all the softwares including the streamster (Marketiva), so the setting was on default. I closed all of the virtual trade and immediately open E/U long at 1.2543. I didn't re-enter G/U.

It was a stupid mistake, but I don't regret it so much. See, I was losing on 1 hour TF until Thursday. However, I got 2 nice trades on G/J last night (with live account). For my E/U position, I haven't move the Stop Loss, but I move the target further to 1.3580. Ok, have a nice weekend guys!

Entries: G/U and E/U Long

I entered E/U at 1.2522 and G/U at 1.4071 for long-term position (could be week or weeks or months but longer than a few days :P). Both E/U and G/U are at the support (previous low), and I thought I take this opportunity. The target are 1.32 (around 700 pips) for E/U and 1.65 (around 2400 pips) for G/U. Both target are near the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level. The stop loss is 70 pips for E/U. But G/U stop loss is almost 600 pips, meaning that I have to use smaller quantity. Hence the return for G/U will be smaller despite the bigger target. Below are the screenshots. Have a nice day guys!

Update: Daily TF Positions All Closed

I finally closed all the positions after 2 weeks with a total of 1164 pips, 480 pips on U/J and 684 pips on G/J. I closed U/J below the target (95.00) because it has failed to reach that level again today. I decided to exit on G/J as well. Below are the daily charts.



I feel good that I can hold those positions. It's like an achievement, considering that I suck at holding positions and couldn't stick with my own plan. And I think the key to that is knowing the risk and then calculate the size for each positions. There was a drawdown for about 300 pips before both of the pairs go up again.

As for the hourly signals, I missed two signals on Friday. At the moment I have E/U long (which is a bad signal) and waiting for G/J to touch the 30 EMA. Okay..happy trading traders!

Update: Daily TF Positions

I closed U/J position yesterday with 241 pips and still hold another U/J long at 89.84 and G/J long at 131.04. The target is near for U/J, which is at 95. However, I'm considering to leave it open and set SL at break even. Both G/J and U/J are around 400 pips so far and probably will retrace down. Honestly, I'm not sure what to do, close or leave them open. I think I'll wait for tomorrow, see what happen. Anyway, I was just testing the method on daily TF and the priority is still 1 hour TF.

Okay..tomorrow is my last exam :P wish me luck! :)

Daily TF Entries

I entered UJ and GJ based on daily TF on Tuesday and Wednesday. I never cross any daily signal before and I thought it was worth to try :) Below are the screenshot. The thing with daily signal is the SL range: it's wider. It was 200 pips for UJ and around 500 pips for GJ. Hence, the quantity were smaller. And because I never done this before, I lower my risk percentage by 50% and the quantity became even smaller. However, I use the other 50%. I added a position for each pair. I closed GJ second position with 259 pips and decided to leave the other three positions for next week.

Okay, if the higher TF signals are more reliable than smaller TF, maybe I have to apply a new rules: avoid 1 hour TF signal if there is (or will be) a signal in 4 hour TF and avoid 4 hour TF signal if there is (or will be) a signal in daily TF.



Daily TF or 1 hour TF?
I still prefer 1 hour because its faster turnover. I haven't done any backtesting to find which of them gave higher return actually. Hmm..okay thats all. Have a nice weekend guys :)

The Method

Okay, here is the explanation of the method:

Indicators:
EMA (30), QQE (5), Gann (30), 2 EMA Crossover (13 & 21), 3 EMA Crossover (5,13,21).
Additional tools:
Fibonacci retracement & trendlines.

Buy condition:
13 EMA above 21 EMA, QQE above 50 level.
Entry at 30 EMA (EMA changes every bar, so entry point needs to be updated each bar)
Initial SL level is the 2 EMA crossover arrow or just simply the support/previous low.
Target 121 pips ;P

Sell condition:
The opposite.

For SL, I wait until the candle closed across SL level. I backtested the method and got 50% return/monthly in average for Jan '08 - Mar '08.

Okay, got to go! My lecturer watching me.. :P Byee..

Trade: EU 150 Pips (8 Jan)

Another EU trade went well. I entered Thursday morning (Jakarta) at 30 EMA as follow up on my previous cut loss. I was a bit emotional when I entered actually. I entered after I saw the price touched the 30 EMA and a bounce was in progress. The pair did bounced for about 30 pips from my entry price, but it went back down testing the support. You can see on the chart below that the Gann indicator was shifted above the candle and 5,13 EMA crossed down 21 EMA (red arrows). I was worried actually ;P but my stop loss still quite far below. The euro finally appreciated against dollar in Europe session. I closed the position near 38.2% Fibo level at 150 pips. QQE also crossed, which can be use as exit signal in sideway market. I never so attracted to this pair before and I only trade this pair once in a while. Maybe because this pair gave me around 300 pips in the past week :P Well, I will certainly looking for another signal in this pair. I'll see wheter this pair tooks more than it gives... Hopefully the other way around.