MA Candle Indicator

Here is an indicator for you who use MA crossover. The indicator shows red color if the slow MA cross down fast MA and blue color if it is otherwise. The color setting can be change as well as the width. Default setting is MA 12 and MA 26. I got this indicator from the metatrader yahoo group. Okay, feel free to download below. Bye guys!

DOWNLOAD HERE

GBPJPY Weekly Chart: Bounced & Close Below 30 EMA

Since my last post, the pair has reached as high as 162.58 before going down again to 154.05, which gave support for the pair. However, after sideways for the last 3 weeks, it went down for 1,000 pips this week. The pair also closed below 30 EMA, meaning that more down should be anticipated for the following week. The pair almost touch 38.2% retracement of 118.80 (low) to 162.58 (high) at 145.86. The target remains the same which is the 50% retracement at 140.69 area. That's all, have nice weekend. Take care..

GBPJPY Weekly Chart: Bounce Off 50 EMA Resistance

The retracement from 118.80 may come to an end as the pair has touch 50 EMA on weekly chart, or 38.2% retracement of 215.85 to 118.80 with 'high' at 160.45. Potential target for short is the 50% retracement of the retracement at 139.63 and may extend to test the 118.80 'low'.

Update: GBP/JPY 2nd Entry

I add another GBP/JPY short position at 142.84. The pair went back inside the channel and tested my Stop Loss level (near 23.6% area of 118.80 to 151.52 and 30 EMA in H4 chart) before it dropped again below the channel. Target still remain at 139.02 first and 135.16 next.

GBP/JPY H4 Chart

I also move SL to 143.30 based on the MA crossover signal. I add another trendline as you can see below, which had been broken now. However, the pair need to break it previous low at 140.58. Otherwise, I wont be surprised if it makes another bullish move later on US session. I'm preety confident though, that the pair will go to 135.16 area since USD/JPY had gone below it channel also, with QQE crossing 50 level. That's all. Bye :)

GBP/JPY H1 Chart
USD/JPY Daily Chart

Entry: EUR/USD Short For 50% Fibonacci Retracement

It turned out that I was not done for this week :P I entered short on EUR/USD last night. The pair touched its channel resistance and has been moving sideways. I entered at 1.3478 with stop loss around 1.3520. 38.2% retracement is at 1.3382 which is 100% projection of A to B while 50% retracement (1.3340) is at the broken resistance. I pretty sure this is my last trade this week. I also look forward on how the market react after tonight news. That's all guys. I'll update later. Happy trading!

Entry: EUR/USD Bounce From 50% Retracement

The pair bounced off the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2481 to 1.3737 last week and still hold the support. Higher lows has been formed since then. I have made some trade with entries at the support trendline. Buy signal appears today based on the 30 EMA system on hourly chart. However, TP level will be higher this time. Instead of fixed target of 65 pips, I want to try 1.34 and hopefully will be done this week. Below is the screen shot.

H1 Chart

H4 Chart

On daily chart, the 30 EMA which is near the 50% Fibo level seems to provide strong support. In other words, it is a buy signal also! :P I think EU may test the previous high or that resistance trendline at 1.3737, but 1.3400 is fine for me :)

D1 Chart

The Method

Okay, here is the explanation of the method:

Indicators:
EMA (30), QQE (5), Gann (30), 2 EMA Crossover (13 & 21), 3 EMA Crossover (5,13,21).
Additional tools:
Fibonacci retracement & trendlines.

Buy condition:
13 EMA above 21 EMA, QQE above 50 level.
Entry at 30 EMA (EMA changes every bar, so entry point needs to be updated each bar)
Initial SL level is the 2 EMA crossover arrow or just simply the support/previous low.
Target 121 pips ;P

Sell condition:
The opposite.

For SL, I wait until the candle closed across SL level. I backtested the method and got 50% return/monthly in average for Jan '08 - Mar '08.

Okay, got to go! My lecturer watching me.. :P Byee..

Trade: Cut Loss EU, Closed GJ 121 Pips (7 Jan)

I enter short EU on 7 January morning Indonesian time at 30 EMA. The pair turned on bullish after going down until 1.3433, about 90 pips from my entry price. My target was 1.3380. I decided to cut loss even my stop loss was not broken yet because of the 5,13,21 EMA crossover and QQE cross 50 level. I exit after the price move closer to my entry point so the loss was not too big, which was 51 pips.


I also entered long on GJ at 30 EMA. Entry point and stop loss shown in the chart below. The uptrend has been going for 4 days actually and a trend change is very possible. However I kept entering because the channel was already broken. In addition, my previous analysis on H4 and daily chart supported my decision. It was a nice trade actually. The pair test the previous high again immediatly. My exit also shown in the chart below.

EU Update: Closed Above 30 EMA

EU daily candle closed above 30 EMA shown in the chart below (blue circle). It turned out that the moving average provided some support for yesterday. Today, the pair still trying to break it with movement already reach 50% Fibo retracement (yellow Fibo) of 1.2328 to 1.4718. I wonder if the pair can closed above the 30 EMA again. Okay, just wanna update yesterday's post. I'll post GJ chart update later OK! Happy trading guys.. :)

Trade: Closed EU 51 Pips

I trade EU today at the following signal shown in the picture below. I forgot to put the limit order actually, but I enter near the 30 EMA after the price touched the 30 EMA. I set my target at the previous low which is 51 pips with Stop Loss level around 1.3985/95.


On H4 chart, the pair has break the 38.2% Fibo retracement level (yellow Fibo) and almost reach the first target at 50% retracement (yellow Fibo) 1.2328 to 1.4718. On daily chart, the price cross below 30 EMA at the moment and we'll see if the 30 EMA can provides strong support. The weekly chart suggests that the down trend has resumed after price touched 50% Fibo retracement (red Fibo) of 1.6037 to 1.2328.

H4 Chart

Daily Chart

Weekly Chart

Trade: Closed EU 225 Pips

I sell EU on 30 December after it touched 30 EMA. It went sideway until the next afternoon and almost closed above my SL level. The picture below shows my entry and exit point. I closed the position immediatly after FxPro server open again yesterday at 2 PM server time with 225 pips, a nice result to start the new year;) The pair goes sideway again for now.

I got an entry signal actually from GJ but Marketiva is closed until Monday. I can close my position but I cannot open any. GJ touched the 30 EMA after it breaks the TL (purple TL) on 31 December. QQE also has cross 50 level. The setup is shown on the picture below.


OK! Have a nice weekend guys!

EU Chart Update: Closed Above or Below?

EU retraced today after reached 61.8% retracement of 1.6037 to 1.2328. The price even stay below 30 EMA on the weekly chart at the moment. Below is EU weekly chart.

In my opinion, EU will continue south if it close below 30 EMA or 50% retracement. However, it also might retest 50% retracement before doing so. Therefore, we may see another spike next week. First target on downside is the support line shown on the chart. QQE cross also streghten my analysis since it usually signal a change in direction. I do not expect a retest to 1.2328 low, or at least until it breaks the support line on the chart. 

If EU close above 30 EMA or 50% fibonacci level, then I expect a move to 61.8% Fibo level again or until QQE yellow line is near 50 level. I do not aware of any fundamental factors that give a bullish sentiment for euro economic condition. Many company will need dollar to pay their liabilities and American MNC will have to consolidate their earnings at the end of the year.

I  also didn't and perhaps will not open a position regarding this analysis. I need to save the margin for GBP/JPY trades;P So, trade on your own risk okay :) 

See ya..

Fibo MA Indicator

I made these 3 indicators using rainbow indicator templates. I only change the period of the moving averages. The idea was to use these MAs without adding them one by one on my chart, also it looks nicer ;P The lower fibo (blue) periods are 5 EMA and 13 EMA, middle fibo are 21 EMA and 34 EMA, and the upper fibo periods are 55 EMA and 89 EMA. My idea of using these indicators is crossover of course, but I haven't got the time to test them. I've been busy with college assignments :( Well below is the picture and I hope you like it.

DOWNLOAD FIBO MA Upper
DOWNLOAD FIBO MA Middle
DOWNLOAD FIBO MA Lower

2 - 6 June

The 5-13-21 EMA system produce 4 signals this week. Two signals followed by great movement where the pair reached target at 4 hour BBands. Two others went bad:( The 2 bad signals appeared after a trendline break.

I made comparison with the 5EMA and 13EMA crossover only (MACD). The entry signal produce by the 5EMA and 13EMA (red vertical lines) were more accurate in this week market.

As for my result, I lose again this week;P I lose on Wednesday and Friday (by NFP). I closed the winning trades with 50 pips. I know the target is the 4 hour BBands but I had to leave my laptop :P I also made 2 trades based on the Eagle Breakout. I got 50 pips and -81 pips. Plan for next week? I want to try the 5 and 13 EMA signal, with trendline of course. Have a nice weekend all:)


Previous Week

Bollinger Bands as Target

Taken from John J. Murphy's Technical Analysis To The Financial Market, we can use the Bollinger Bands as target. Moreover, I will test it for the 5-13-21 EMA system that I've been using for the moment.

First of all, the target is the upper band on bullish trend and the lower band on bearish. However, some signal appeared when the price is near the target. So, my idea is to add another band set at deviation 3. And I refer to the 4 hour chart target, not in 1 hour. Here is the sample from yesterday signal:

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Chart

GBP/JPY 4 Hour Chart

On 1 hour chart, target is at 207.33 (which is fine actually ;P) and 206.10 on 4 hour chart, a hundred pips more than the 1 hour target. The problem is that we'll have to wait a bit longer to reach the higher target. Sometime, the price don't reach the target. So, trailing stop might be needed. I haven't met any kind of unusual condition regarding this technique. I never use BBands much before;P I will update any necessary input about this later.

Summarizing the 5-13-21 EMA system, we now have the alert, the entry, the initial stop loss, the position sizing, and I hope we can use the Bollinger Bands for exit. Otherwise I just use 50 pips target. Sorry if I post the system piece by piece because basically I was just thinking out loud:) Just check out 'Moving Averages' under 'Label' option. Have a nice trading week..

Stop Loss Using MA Crossover Signal

I just notice something about the MA crossover signal indicator. It seems that the signal appears at some point that can be use as stop loss level. The signal is 13 EMA and 21 EMA crossover and I haven't try with other MA period and I use 1 hour chart. This is what I saw:

You can see on the right side that the EMAs crossed again when the SL level got hit. Here is another.

The particular signal above could really help in that kind of price movement. You can also set your position sizing based on that signal. Well, I cannot post all of my samples here so you can download the indicator below and try it yourself. Have a great weekend all..

DOWNLOAD HERE

12 - 16 May

The pair reversed since Monday and was going sideways for the rest of the week. The 13 and 21 EMA cross gave late signals in this situation while the 5 and 13 EMA cross generate better entry signals. I lose 298 pips this week :P I closed 2 short positions near that red arrow on Friday, just before the price went back down :( GBP/USD resistance is at 1.9630 and USD/JPY resistance is at 104.50, so I expect GBP/JPY will fall next week:) Well that is all have a nice weekend guys!

Previous Week

5 - 9 May

I said on my previous post that I want to use the EMA. I also said that a good trend can last for few days. Well, it has been a good week. The 13 EMA cross the 21 EMA on Monday from above and it remain below the 21 EMA until the end of the week. And because the price kept on falling, some of my entries were based on trendline breakout. Ok, that's all. Have a nice weekend.

Previous Week

Moving Average Based System

I always like Moving Averages. I am currently using the 5, 13, and 21 EMA. I always tried to find my preference of EMA. I tried 89, 200, 55, 28, and other MA period that people use. But, unlike other MA based system, I don't combine oscillator indicator. Actually I do, but I somehow overlook the oscillator very often. ;P

Well, as you know, MA based system is quite frustrating in sideways market. And since I am lack in using oscillator as confirmation, I use more MA instead. In the 5, 13, and 21 EMA system that I favor now, the 13 and 21 is the confirmation. In the GBP/JPY hourly chart, these EMAs crossed at least once a day, meaning that the 1 hour trend changes once a day. A good trend can last for few days.

For entries, I use the 5 EMA and trendlines. After I enter when the price touch the 13 or the 21 EMA and close back crossing the 5 EMA.

Profit target seems to be a problem for me. To get the maximum profit, I should have follow the trend. But, after 50 pips, I cannot help myself to close my position. :P So I guest 50 pips is my target.

Another problem is stop loss. Well I'm not a stop loss master so I think for the moment my stop loss is either previous high/low or when the opposite signal appears. I am reading about stop loss with ATR (Average True Range) based but I'll use the previous high/low for now. Oh and please share your own preference of Moving Average and how you use it. Okay that is all guys. Bye.. :)