GBP/JPY Update: Hourly, H4 and Daily Charts

The pair is at support, almost touch 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 118.8 to 163.06 at 146.16. The outlook remain bearish as long it stay below channel. Getting back inside the channel will turn the outlook to short term retracement to test the resistance. Target remains at 50% Fibonacci level at 141 area. Cable has been moving in negative correlation with USD/JPY most of this week, and we saw GBP/JPY stucked in between, resulting in volatile swings. Therefore, we need careful approach for the pair.

GBP/JPY D1 Chart

GBP/JPY H1 Chart

GBP/JPY H4 Chart

GBP/JPY H1 Chart: Sell Again

Above is the updated screenshot of my last analysis for GBP/JPY in hourly TF (see post). The pair touch the resistance trendline again and I took it as entry signal for another short position. I also add outer trendline to measure the deviation. This can be the tolerance limit for SL if the pair break the inner trendline.

Looking at yesterday's performance of GBP/JPY, the sellers lose the ground after the pair touch 150.16 with another low at 150.05 after a few candles. The sterling had been in favor through the Europe and US sessions. As for today, well, we'll see.. :)

GBP/JPY H1 Chart: At Resistance Trendline

GBP/JPY seems to find its support for now at 151.05. The pair has been retrace since and reach the upper trendline which give opportunity to sell again. Stop loss is limited to around 153.29 (current high & 50% retracement). First target is 151.05 and, hopefully, break that support until 146.8x :) See the chart and my previous post ok! Byee..

GBPJPY Weekly Chart: Bounced & Close Below 30 EMA

Since my last post, the pair has reached as high as 162.58 before going down again to 154.05, which gave support for the pair. However, after sideways for the last 3 weeks, it went down for 1,000 pips this week. The pair also closed below 30 EMA, meaning that more down should be anticipated for the following week. The pair almost touch 38.2% retracement of 118.80 (low) to 162.58 (high) at 145.86. The target remains the same which is the 50% retracement at 140.69 area. That's all, have nice weekend. Take care..

GBPJPY Weekly Chart: Bounce Off 50 EMA Resistance

The retracement from 118.80 may come to an end as the pair has touch 50 EMA on weekly chart, or 38.2% retracement of 215.85 to 118.80 with 'high' at 160.45. Potential target for short is the 50% retracement of the retracement at 139.63 and may extend to test the 118.80 'low'.

Entry: EUR/USD Short

The pair touched 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3391 to 1.2881 just and bounced for 50 pips now. I sell the pair at 1.3225 with Stop Loss around 1.3400 area and targeting it lower trendline around 1.2550 area. However, first support might be seen at 1.312x area near 50% Fibonacci level (see H1 chart). I'm not really sure if the pair has found its peak actually, but I have my Stop Loss. And I have to take risk right? :)

Daily Chart

H1 Chart

Update: GBP/JPY 2nd Entry

I add another GBP/JPY short position at 142.84. The pair went back inside the channel and tested my Stop Loss level (near 23.6% area of 118.80 to 151.52 and 30 EMA in H4 chart) before it dropped again below the channel. Target still remain at 139.02 first and 135.16 next.

GBP/JPY H4 Chart

I also move SL to 143.30 based on the MA crossover signal. I add another trendline as you can see below, which had been broken now. However, the pair need to break it previous low at 140.58. Otherwise, I wont be surprised if it makes another bullish move later on US session. I'm preety confident though, that the pair will go to 135.16 area since USD/JPY had gone below it channel also, with QQE crossing 50 level. That's all. Bye :)

GBP/JPY H1 Chart
USD/JPY Daily Chart

Entry: The Channel is Broken

I sell GBP/JPY just now at 142.28. The pair broke the uptrend channel on 4 hour chart and had retraced to test the channel. The first target is 38.2% retracement of 118.80 to 151.52 at 139.02 and 50% retracement next at 135.16. Below are the daily and 4 hour chart. Stop loss set at 144.50 area. I tried to confirm my analysis and I found one that is similar by "GJ Trader". Check the post here to get second opinion :)

Daily Chart

H4 Chart

It's been a while since my last post. Trading result had not been good with false signals on 30 EMA system (hourly chart) and several gambling trades :P I am still ahead of my monthly target though. Well, that is all guys. Bye :)

Closed: The Shorts Went Good

I closed the GBP/JPY position at 149.15 after it touch the lower channel on hourly chart. The pair broke the channel literally a few seconds after I closed it :P I quickly opened another position and closed it with 66 pips. So, it turned out that the second attempt to sell GBP/JPY ended well. As I mentioned in my previous post, the target can be more way down at 145.50 or 143.60 area. So I will look for 30 EMA signal on hourly chart to enter another short position.

GBP/JPY H1 Chart

I also entered EUR/USD after I realized that the price was near 1.3587, which is 50% Fibo retracement (yellow) of 1.4718 (December high) to 1.2456 (March low). The pair broke a minor trendline on hourly chart and I closed it at 1.3406, few pips above 38.2% retracement (blue) of 1.3113 (March 30 low) to today's high at 1.3580. There is a long signal on 4 hour chart actually with stop loss around 1.3265 but I think I'll wait until the pair touches or near another trendline below. Below is the chart. Happy trading!

EUR/USD H1 Chart

Entry: GBP/JPY Second Attempt

The pair broke 148.30 resistance and went as high as 150.70 for now. I had closed my position from last Friday with 169 pips loss. I spotted another resistance on weekly chart and decided to give it another try. The pair has touch the 30 EMA on weekly chart at 150.75. My entry point was 150.40. The pair also at the upper channel on 1 hour chart. Below are the weekly and hourly chart.

50% fibonacci retracement of 118.80 (January low) to 150.72 is at 134.72. On hourly chart, 50% fibonacci retracement of 135.70 to 150.72 is at 143.21. However, 148 (broken resistance) and 145 (March high) area have to be broken first.

Weekly Chart

H1 Chart

That is all for now. Happy trading guys!

Entry: EUR/USD Short For 50% Fibonacci Retracement

It turned out that I was not done for this week :P I entered short on EUR/USD last night. The pair touched its channel resistance and has been moving sideways. I entered at 1.3478 with stop loss around 1.3520. 38.2% retracement is at 1.3382 which is 100% projection of A to B while 50% retracement (1.3340) is at the broken resistance. I pretty sure this is my last trade this week. I also look forward on how the market react after tonight news. That's all guys. I'll update later. Happy trading!

Entry: EUR/USD Bounce From 50% Retracement

The pair bounced off the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2481 to 1.3737 last week and still hold the support. Higher lows has been formed since then. I have made some trade with entries at the support trendline. Buy signal appears today based on the 30 EMA system on hourly chart. However, TP level will be higher this time. Instead of fixed target of 65 pips, I want to try 1.34 and hopefully will be done this week. Below is the screen shot.

H1 Chart

H4 Chart

On daily chart, the 30 EMA which is near the 50% Fibo level seems to provide strong support. In other words, it is a buy signal also! :P I think EU may test the previous high or that resistance trendline at 1.3737, but 1.3400 is fine for me :)

D1 Chart

Update: GBP/USD Closed 510 Pips

After pushing 900 pips on Tuesday, GBP/USD fell on the remaining days this week. The pair is now at the 30 EMA on Daily chart. I decided to exit the position with 510 pips and open again at 1.4330. It is a good entry signal I think: price at 30 EMA and QQE cross down. Stop loss also has move to 1.4000. Target remain at 1.6200-1.6428 (38.2% Fibo retracement). Another levels of retracement are 1.7331 (50%) and 1.8235 (61.8%). However, there are

Entry: Added GBPUSD to the Portfolio

GBPUSD touch 1.3654 this week but soon bounced to 1.38 area. I opened a position at 1.3812 with Stop Loss at 1.3494 low. I think it's a good price to buy the pair. First target will be 38.2% retracement area around 1.6428 and 50% retracement level around 1.7331 next. 13 EMA has just crossed above the 21 EMA on 4 hour time frame but the QQE indicator hasn't completely cross above the 50 level. Below is the picture.

Entries: G/U and E/U Long

I entered E/U at 1.2522 and G/U at 1.4071 for long-term position (could be week or weeks or months but longer than a few days :P). Both E/U and G/U are at the support (previous low), and I thought I take this opportunity. The target are 1.32 (around 700 pips) for E/U and 1.65 (around 2400 pips) for G/U. Both target are near the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level. The stop loss is 70 pips for E/U. But G/U stop loss is almost 600 pips, meaning that I have to use smaller quantity. Hence the return for G/U will be smaller despite the bigger target. Below are the screenshots. Have a nice day guys!

The Method

Okay, here is the explanation of the method:

Indicators:
EMA (30), QQE (5), Gann (30), 2 EMA Crossover (13 & 21), 3 EMA Crossover (5,13,21).
Additional tools:
Fibonacci retracement & trendlines.

Buy condition:
13 EMA above 21 EMA, QQE above 50 level.
Entry at 30 EMA (EMA changes every bar, so entry point needs to be updated each bar)
Initial SL level is the 2 EMA crossover arrow or just simply the support/previous low.
Target 121 pips ;P

Sell condition:
The opposite.

For SL, I wait until the candle closed across SL level. I backtested the method and got 50% return/monthly in average for Jan '08 - Mar '08.

Okay, got to go! My lecturer watching me.. :P Byee..

Trade: Cut Loss EU, Closed GJ 121 Pips (7 Jan)

I enter short EU on 7 January morning Indonesian time at 30 EMA. The pair turned on bullish after going down until 1.3433, about 90 pips from my entry price. My target was 1.3380. I decided to cut loss even my stop loss was not broken yet because of the 5,13,21 EMA crossover and QQE cross 50 level. I exit after the price move closer to my entry point so the loss was not too big, which was 51 pips.


I also entered long on GJ at 30 EMA. Entry point and stop loss shown in the chart below. The uptrend has been going for 4 days actually and a trend change is very possible. However I kept entering because the channel was already broken. In addition, my previous analysis on H4 and daily chart supported my decision. It was a nice trade actually. The pair test the previous high again immediatly. My exit also shown in the chart below.

GJ: H1, H4 and Daily Chart

I skip GJ signal today because I think that the risk is to big (green yellow line). The pair touch 30 EMA after breaking the red channel. As you see, the pair tested the resistance again after it touched the 30 EMA. Either on hourly, 4 hour or daily chart, the pair may keep on bullish. However, fundamental factor should be consider since it is NFP week. I also added 50% retracement level (yellow Fibo) on H4 chart. On daily chart, it closed above 30 EMA and the initial resistance should be around the green yellow line shown on daily chart.

H1 Chart

H4 Chart

Daily Chart

The channels (red and lime) are broken on H1 chart. 142 is the the target and 148.xx is the next. I kind of regret that I chose not to enter :( Well.. another day maybe ;) Ciao!!

EU Update: Closed Above 30 EMA

EU daily candle closed above 30 EMA shown in the chart below (blue circle). It turned out that the moving average provided some support for yesterday. Today, the pair still trying to break it with movement already reach 50% Fibo retracement (yellow Fibo) of 1.2328 to 1.4718. I wonder if the pair can closed above the 30 EMA again. Okay, just wanna update yesterday's post. I'll post GJ chart update later OK! Happy trading guys.. :)

EU: Time to Sell

The pair has retest previous high and reach as high as 1.4361 today. 50% Fibo level (red Fibo) was broken earlier on H4 chart but retrace below the level again for the moment. The day (FxPro server) isn't over yet but it seems that the 50% Fibo level (red Fibo) has provided a strong resistance. Below are the charts. The pair seems to form a head and shoulder formation. I also add AB=CD projection which is near the target mentioned on my last post about EU (50% yellow Fibo). Time to sell? Maybe. The thing is that the price needs to break the neckline first to be sure and indicators on H4 chart still shouting my name, told me to buy. Okay, I'm sleepy already. Bye, see you guys next year :)


One more thing. HAPPY NEW YEAR !!