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Tuesday, December 30, 2008

EU: Time to Sell

The pair has retest previous high and reach as high as 1.4361 today. 50% Fibo level (red Fibo) was broken earlier on H4 chart but retrace below the level again for the moment. The day (FxPro server) isn't over yet but it seems that the 50% Fibo level (red Fibo) has provided a strong resistance. Below are the charts. The pair seems to form a head and shoulder formation. I also add AB=CD projection which is near the target mentioned on my last post about EU (50% yellow Fibo). Time to sell? Maybe. The thing is that the price needs to break the neckline first to be sure and indicators on H4 chart still shouting my name, told me to buy. Okay, I'm sleepy already. Bye, see you guys next year :)

One more thing. HAPPY NEW YEAR !!

GBPJPY: Target Reached

The pair has reached the target mentioned on earlier post and a retracement is in progress at the moment. Below is the H4 and H1 chart. The purple TL is the current trend since the price touched the upper channel. If the price can break current trend (purple TL), then I expect a further movement up. The ongoing strong retracement is clearer at H1 chart. The candle closed above the high of the previous candle. I'm sure there is a name for that kind of candlestick formation, but I forgot ;P Anyway, I just wanted to share these analysis and I did not trade any from this analysis (trying to be consistent with 1 system :P). My next move is to order sell limit at 30 EMA on H1 chart. Thats all, bye.

Monday, December 29, 2008

GBPJPY: Lower TL Broken?

Below is GBPJPY H4 chart. Using the chart from my previous post, the pair has just closed below the channel (blue circle). The target is another trendline below (red trendline). Trade on your own risk :)

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Head Start: EUR/USD & GBP/JPY

Hi guys, notice that 800 pips spike on EU weekly chart?? The pair closed 200 pips below 50% level and just below 30 EMA. I don't think it will open above the resistance also. I add Fibonacci retracement of 1.2328 to 1.4718 (yellow Fibo) where we can see that it almost reached 38.2% retracement. I expect it to reach 50% retracement (yellow) first by next week.

GJ find its support at the last trading day this week. I drew a channel on H4 (green lines) and H1 (red lines). On 1 hour chart, it seems that it broke the trendline, but we'll if the pair open above it tomorrow. On 4 hour chart, the support line from two previous lows has been respected and give an opportunity to trade with better risk/reward ratio (targeting upper channel & SL below lower channel). Below are the charts.

Thats all for Head Start session. See you next week :)

Friday, December 19, 2008

EU Chart Update: Closed Above or Below?

EU retraced today after reached 61.8% retracement of 1.6037 to 1.2328. The price even stay below 30 EMA on the weekly chart at the moment. Below is EU weekly chart.

In my opinion, EU will continue south if it close below 30 EMA or 50% retracement. However, it also might retest 50% retracement before doing so. Therefore, we may see another spike next week. First target on downside is the support line shown on the chart. QQE cross also streghten my analysis since it usually signal a change in direction. I do not expect a retest to 1.2328 low, or at least until it breaks the support line on the chart. 
If EU close above 30 EMA or 50% fibonacci level, then I expect a move to 61.8% Fibo level again or until QQE yellow line is near 50 level. I do not aware of any fundamental factors that give a bullish sentiment for euro economic condition. Many company will need dollar to pay their liabilities and American MNC will have to consolidate their earnings at the end of the year.
I  also didn't and perhaps will not open a position regarding this analysis. I need to save the margin for GBP/JPY trades;P So, trade on your own risk okay :) 
See ya..

Thursday, December 18, 2008

EU Trade Update: Hit SL

My EU position hit SL at 200 pips. After 50 pips bounce from 50%, it continued to break the 50% level. Actually, I used to cut loss if the price breaks 61.8% retracement, but in monthly/weekly chart it means that the range will be huge and I totally forgot about this. Next resistance is at 61.8% retracement level. If the price closed below 50% on monthly chart, I may enter another short :). So I will check it again next year.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

EU Monthly Chart: At 50% Fibo

Below is EU monthly weekly chart. EU retrace from 1.2328 low reach 50% of 1.6037 to 1.2328. On weekly chart, price is near 34 EMA. Target for downside is the previous low. I entered at 1.4110. I intend to hold this position until target. Who knows guys. It's seems like a good opportunity ;P 

Monday, December 8, 2008

November Result

I trade on 18 days out of 20 trading days last month with 25 winning trades and 13 losing trades. However, I lose 351 pips, where the first week contributed a lot. It seems like it become a regular thing for me: lose big and then tried to get it all back for the rest of the month ;P Below is the daily return in November.

My blog has been filled with nothing but monthly result lately and I guess I'm sorry for that. Two of my classes just ended so I hope I can spend more time updating my blog. If the results were good, I bet I wouldn't care ;p hehehe.. Ok..later..happy trading.