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Thursday, January 29, 2009

The Method

Okay, here is the explanation of the method:

EMA (30), QQE (5), Gann (30), 2 EMA Crossover (13 & 21), 3 EMA Crossover (5,13,21).
Additional tools:
Fibonacci retracement & trendlines.

Buy condition:
13 EMA above 21 EMA, QQE above 50 level.
Entry at 30 EMA (EMA changes every bar, so entry point needs to be updated each bar)
Initial SL level is the 2 EMA crossover arrow or just simply the support/previous low.
Target 121 pips ;P

Sell condition:
The opposite.

For SL, I wait until the candle closed across SL level. I backtested the method and got 50% return/monthly in average for Jan '08 - Mar '08.

Okay, got to go! My lecturer watching me.. :P Byee..

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Trade: Closed GJ 131 Pips, EU 64 Pips

On the last trading day this week, I gain 131 pips from GJ from a position I opened on the previous day. Actually I mistyped the TP by 10 pips and I should have got out from the trade earlier. Fortunately, the pair tested the support again on Friday and reach the target.
There was a long signal actually before the pair drop until the broken channel (green yellow channel), but I ignored it because I noticed that UK interest rate was going to be announced later that day. I also ignored a signal on Tuesday because it was near the upper channel, which turned out to be a good signal :( Since the uptrend starts on Friday last week, I also miss a signal because my broker still in holiday.

I close EU with 64 pips also on Friday. I closed it manually after I decided to end the week. The pair went bearish after I closed my position and reach my stop loss level. So I was lucky I guess. In addition, I will look for EU short signals next week.

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Trade: EU 150 Pips (8 Jan)

Another EU trade went well. I entered Thursday morning (Jakarta) at 30 EMA as follow up on my previous cut loss. I was a bit emotional when I entered actually. I entered after I saw the price touched the 30 EMA and a bounce was in progress. The pair did bounced for about 30 pips from my entry price, but it went back down testing the support. You can see on the chart below that the Gann indicator was shifted above the candle and 5,13 EMA crossed down 21 EMA (red arrows). I was worried actually ;P but my stop loss still quite far below. The euro finally appreciated against dollar in Europe session. I closed the position near 38.2% Fibo level at 150 pips. QQE also crossed, which can be use as exit signal in sideway market. I never so attracted to this pair before and I only trade this pair once in a while. Maybe because this pair gave me around 300 pips in the past week :P Well, I will certainly looking for another signal in this pair. I'll see wheter this pair tooks more than it gives... Hopefully the other way around.

Friday, January 9, 2009

Trade: Cut Loss EU, Closed GJ 121 Pips (7 Jan)

I enter short EU on 7 January morning Indonesian time at 30 EMA. The pair turned on bullish after going down until 1.3433, about 90 pips from my entry price. My target was 1.3380. I decided to cut loss even my stop loss was not broken yet because of the 5,13,21 EMA crossover and QQE cross 50 level. I exit after the price move closer to my entry point so the loss was not too big, which was 51 pips.

I also entered long on GJ at 30 EMA. Entry point and stop loss shown in the chart below. The uptrend has been going for 4 days actually and a trend change is very possible. However I kept entering because the channel was already broken. In addition, my previous analysis on H4 and daily chart supported my decision. It was a nice trade actually. The pair test the previous high again immediatly. My exit also shown in the chart below.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

GJ: H1, H4 and Daily Chart

I skip GJ signal today because I think that the risk is to big (green yellow line). The pair touch 30 EMA after breaking the red channel. As you see, the pair tested the resistance again after it touched the 30 EMA. Either on hourly, 4 hour or daily chart, the pair may keep on bullish. However, fundamental factor should be consider since it is NFP week. I also added 50% retracement level (yellow Fibo) on H4 chart. On daily chart, it closed above 30 EMA and the initial resistance should be around the green yellow line shown on daily chart.

H1 Chart
H4 Chart

Daily Chart
The channels (red and lime) are broken on H1 chart. 142 is the the target and 148.xx is the next. I kind of regret that I chose not to enter :( Well.. another day maybe ;) Ciao!!

EU Update: Closed Above 30 EMA

EU daily candle closed above 30 EMA shown in the chart below (blue circle). It turned out that the moving average provided some support for yesterday. Today, the pair still trying to break it with movement already reach 50% Fibo retracement (yellow Fibo) of 1.2328 to 1.4718. I wonder if the pair can closed above the 30 EMA again. Okay, just wanna update yesterday's post. I'll post GJ chart update later OK! Happy trading guys.. :)

Monday, January 5, 2009

Trade: Closed EU 51 Pips

I trade EU today at the following signal shown in the picture below. I forgot to put the limit order actually, but I enter near the 30 EMA after the price touched the 30 EMA. I set my target at the previous low which is 51 pips with Stop Loss level around 1.3985/95.

On H4 chart, the pair has break the 38.2% Fibo retracement level (yellow Fibo) and almost reach the first target at 50% retracement (yellow Fibo) 1.2328 to 1.4718. On daily chart, the price cross below 30 EMA at the moment and we'll see if the 30 EMA can provides strong support. The weekly chart suggests that the down trend has resumed after price touched 50% Fibo retracement (red Fibo) of 1.6037 to 1.2328.

H4 Chart
Daily Chart

Weekly Chart

Saturday, January 3, 2009

Beware of This Liberty Reserve Notification!

I got these spam in email said to be from Liberty Reserve, but it is not! The email told me that my account is blocked and I should follow the link to unblock my account. It is a kind of phishing maybe, I don't know. "phishing is the criminally fraudulent process of attempting to acquire sensitive information such as usernames, passwords and credit card details by masquerading as a trustworthy entity in an electronic communication." source: Wikipedia.

For anyone who have the same mail, please don't click any link. The LR website says that any email from LR must contains the name of the account holder (your name). In addition ,the email account where I got these spams is not the one I use for LR. I do not know how to stop those spams and it keep coming. The latest is today. There is a phishing filter software if I'm not mistaken. I attach the picture below.

Trade: Closed EU 225 Pips

I sell EU on 30 December after it touched 30 EMA. It went sideway until the next afternoon and almost closed above my SL level. The picture below shows my entry and exit point. I closed the position immediatly after FxPro server open again yesterday at 2 PM server time with 225 pips, a nice result to start the new year;) The pair goes sideway again for now.

I got an entry signal actually from GJ but Marketiva is closed until Monday. I can close my position but I cannot open any. GJ touched the 30 EMA after it breaks the TL (purple TL) on 31 December. QQE also has cross 50 level. The setup is shown on the picture below.

OK! Have a nice weekend guys!

Ultimate Trading System

Let me share this ULTIMATE FOREX SYSTEM. It's so simple! Just spin it. Just pick between BUY or SELL, and it will decide it for you!

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