Subscribe in a reader

Friday, September 25, 2009

GBP/JPY Update: Hourly, H4 and Daily Charts

The pair is at support, almost touch 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 118.8 to 163.06 at 146.16. The outlook remain bearish as long it stay below channel. Getting back inside the channel will turn the outlook to short term retracement to test the resistance. Target remains at 50% Fibonacci level at 141 area. Cable has been moving in negative correlation with USD/JPY most of this week, and we saw GBP/JPY stucked in between, resulting in volatile swings. Therefore, we need careful approach for the pair.

GBP/JPY D1 Chart
GBP/JPY H1 Chart
GBP/JPY H4 Chart





Saturday, September 12, 2009

GBP/JPY Daily & H1 Chart: What A Week..

So, after 4 days of consolidation, the pair break the support trendline and drop to 150.48 before closing the week at 150.99. I added a trendline since my last post. On daily TF, we can see that the 23.6% Fibonacci level proved to be a strong resistance. The breakout also give assumption that the pair would have another move to test the support levels (see D1 chart).

GBP/JPY H1 Chart

GBP/JPY D1 Chart


Wednesday, September 9, 2009

GBP/JPY: There is the Breakout

The pair has just broken the support trendline and I'm hoping to see a test to 151 support, which is the AB projection from C. The pair almost broke the resistance earlier actually, with the QQE indicator also breaking the trendline. However the price failed to give a clear breakout and I decided not to enter.

Ok now, the outlook is bearish, but choppy movement should be anticipated while Cable still moving north. Have a nice day guys..




GBP/JPY: New Channels In Hourly Chart


Since the pair has broken the downtrend channel, we gotta need new chart setup. Right then.. here you go. Please look at the screenshot. I started by connecting PL (previous low) and HL (higher low) to get the current uptrend trendline. Next, I draw trendline from PH (previous high) to HH (higher high). Then I make a parallel trendline of PH-HH from PL to get an equidistant channel. Wow..I'm a bit confused myself :D Bear with me for a minute ok. I also draw another trendline from HH to LH (lower high), and put a parallel one from PH (previous high) to create another channel. Phiuuhh... Man.. that was exhausting.. Maybe its better if you just take a look at the screenshot ;P Happy trading guys!



Friday, September 4, 2009

GBP/JPY H1 Chart: Sell No More



The downtrend channel on hourly chart was broken again for the second time yesterday. The 30 EMA has crossed above 50 EMA also. However, the pair did make a lower low since my last post. Support for now is the Wednesday low at 149.02. I don't know the pair direction for now while the it still seems like a downtrend in 4 hour and 1 day time frame. The latest NFP will be release later on US session. Ok! Got to go now. ;D

Tuesday, September 1, 2009

GBP/JPY H1 Chart: Sell Again


Above is the updated screenshot of my last analysis for GBP/JPY in hourly TF (see post). The pair touch the resistance trendline again and I took it as entry signal for another short position. I also add outer trendline to measure the deviation. This can be the tolerance limit for SL if the pair break the inner trendline.

Looking at yesterday's performance of GBP/JPY, the sellers lose the ground after the pair touch 150.16 with another low at 150.05 after a few candles. The sterling had been in favor through the Europe and US sessions. As for today, well, we'll see.. :)

Friday, August 28, 2009

GBP/JPY H1 Chart: At Resistance Trendline

GBP/JPY seems to find its support for now at 151.05. The pair has been retrace since and reach the upper trendline which give opportunity to sell again. Stop loss is limited to around 153.29 (current high & 50% retracement). First target is 151.05 and, hopefully, break that support until 146.8x :) See the chart and my previous post ok! Byee..

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

GBP/JPY : Break Below

Using my last chart setup, the pair has broken the trendline in Daily as well as in H4 candles. Below are the screenshots. Nothing change about the target, which still around the next support near 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 145.86. Risk can be limited to yesterday high around 153.55. I think its about time to see a strong trend after sideway since August 17. I certainly hope so :) I'm off from my laptop for an internship interview until euro session I think. Ok, thats all. Happy trading guys!

Daily Chart


H4 Chart

Friday, August 21, 2009

GBP/JPY H1 Chart: Dare to Sell?

The pair touch the resistance trendline and seems like a good opportunity to sell. Target is around previous low with stop loss above the resistance trendline. The pair had broken the support but failed to sustain below it after a better than expected news series on Euro before on European session. Above the resistance would bring retest of 157.36 resistance.

Support & Resistance Indicator

Just want to make sure everyone seen this indicator. It's called "Support & Resistance (barry)" and I really don't know why what 'barry' means..hmm..maybe he is the owner..hmm..
Anyway, can you guess what this indicator can do? It is an indicator that shows.. support anndd.. that's right! it shows resistance too. Now, you might think that I'll give you only one file. Nooo...Instead of one Support & Resistance (Barry) indicator, you can have two. Yes! Two!
How to download the indicators?? I know you guys just can't wait to get these indicators, don't you? Don't you?? All you need to do is click the link below to download the files.


DOWNLOAD 1
DOWNLOAD 2

Ok that's all. I think I need to get some sleep. Happy trading guys!

Thursday, August 20, 2009

GBP/JPY H1 Chart: Going Down?

The pair reached the resistance trendline and could go down to the support trendline. 30 EMA also still below 50 EMA. You can also see that the QQE indicator crossed above and below 50 level in this kind of market movement. The range seems to tighten up in H1 chart, which is kind of exiting for me. Why? Because after this we can expect a breakout in either way and hope for a nice movement :) Meanwhile, lets enjoy the sideway shall we..

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

GBP/JPY Daily Chart: Reverse or Extent?

I drew trendlines on GBP/JPY Daily chart just now and got this as a result. I also tried to count the movement from the bottom and added 30 and 50 EMA to visualize the trend. 30 EMA has been above 50 EMA since March and I count 5 significant waves. For now, the pair formed double top with support at current low and 'wave 4' low. The selling point should be below the first support with target at the next support (wave 4 low). Or, buy the pair now with risk below the first support and target the upper channel or even the 161.8 extension of wave 3 and 4 Which one? Buy? Sell?? As for me, I would like to see the pair breaks that support and fall :) Well, lets wait and see! Bye..!

Sunday, July 12, 2009

MA Candle Indicator

Here is an indicator for you who use MA crossover. The indicator shows red color if the slow MA cross down fast MA and blue color if it is otherwise. The color setting can be change as well as the width. Default setting is MA 12 and MA 26. I got this indicator from the metatrader yahoo group. Okay, feel free to download below. Bye guys!


GBPJPY Weekly Chart: Bounced & Close Below 30 EMA

Since my last post, the pair has reached as high as 162.58 before going down again to 154.05, which gave support for the pair. However, after sideways for the last 3 weeks, it went down for 1,000 pips this week. The pair also closed below 30 EMA, meaning that more down should be anticipated for the following week. The pair almost touch 38.2% retracement of 118.80 (low) to 162.58 (high) at 145.86. The target remains the same which is the 50% retracement at 140.69 area. That's all, have nice weekend. Take care..

Thursday, June 4, 2009

GBPJPY Weekly Chart: Bounce Off 50 EMA Resistance

The retracement from 118.80 may come to an end as the pair has touch 50 EMA on weekly chart, or 38.2% retracement of 215.85 to 118.80 with 'high' at 160.45. Potential target for short is the 50% retracement of the retracement at 139.63 and may extend to test the 118.80 'low'.

Monday, May 4, 2009

Closed: Bloody Shorts

The EUR/USD and GBP/JPY short positions has been closed with loss. The pair broke their resistances and did not continue falling down as my analysis. Unfortunately I added some more positions when they retraced and lose track with my margin (silly!) and I compromised with my stop loss. I ended up losing 80% after having 50% floating profit from all positions!! Okay thats all guys. All I need to do now is gain back my losses.. wish me luck :)

Friday, April 24, 2009

Entry: EUR/USD Short

The pair touched 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.3391 to 1.2881 just and bounced for 50 pips now. I sell the pair at 1.3225 with Stop Loss around 1.3400 area and targeting it lower trendline around 1.2550 area. However, first support might be seen at 1.312x area near 50% Fibonacci level (see H1 chart). I'm not really sure if the pair has found its peak actually, but I have my Stop Loss. And I have to take risk right? :)

Daily Chart

H1 Chart

Update: GBP/JPY 2nd Entry

I add another GBP/JPY short position at 142.84. The pair went back inside the channel and tested my Stop Loss level (near 23.6% area of 118.80 to 151.52 and 30 EMA in H4 chart) before it dropped again below the channel. Target still remain at 139.02 first and 135.16 next.

GBP/JPY H4 Chart

I also move SL to 143.30 based on the MA crossover signal. I add another trendline as you can see below, which had been broken now. However, the pair need to break it previous low at 140.58. Otherwise, I wont be surprised if it makes another bullish move later on US session. I'm preety confident though, that the pair will go to 135.16 area since USD/JPY had gone below it channel also, with QQE crossing 50 level. That's all. Bye :)

GBP/JPY H1 Chart
USD/JPY Daily Chart

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Entry: The Channel is Broken

I sell GBP/JPY just now at 142.28. The pair broke the uptrend channel on 4 hour chart and had retraced to test the channel. The first target is 38.2% retracement of 118.80 to 151.52 at 139.02 and 50% retracement next at 135.16. Below are the daily and 4 hour chart. Stop loss set at 144.50 area. I tried to confirm my analysis and I found one that is similar by "GJ Trader". Check the post here to get second opinion :)

Daily Chart

H4 Chart

It's been a while since my last post. Trading result had not been good with false signals on 30 EMA system (hourly chart) and several gambling trades :P I am still ahead of my monthly target though. Well, that is all guys. Bye :)

Monday, April 6, 2009

Closed: The Shorts Went Good

I closed the GBP/JPY position at 149.15 after it touch the lower channel on hourly chart. The pair broke the channel literally a few seconds after I closed it :P I quickly opened another position and closed it with 66 pips. So, it turned out that the second attempt to sell GBP/JPY ended well. As I mentioned in my previous post, the target can be more way down at 145.50 or 143.60 area. So I will look for 30 EMA signal on hourly chart to enter another short position.

GBP/JPY H1 Chart

I also entered EUR/USD after I realized that the price was near 1.3587, which is 50% Fibo retracement (yellow) of 1.4718 (December high) to 1.2456 (March low). The pair broke a minor trendline on hourly chart and I closed it at 1.3406, few pips above 38.2% retracement (blue) of 1.3113 (March 30 low) to today's high at 1.3580. There is a long signal on 4 hour chart actually
with stop loss around 1.3265 but I think I'll wait until the pair touches or near another trendline below. Below is the chart. Happy trading!

EUR/USD H1 Chart

Entry: GBP/JPY Second Attempt

The pair broke 148.30 resistance and went as high as 150.70 for now. I had closed my position from last Friday with 169 pips loss. I spotted another resistance on weekly chart and decided to give it another try. The pair has touch the 30 EMA on weekly chart at 150.75. My entry point was 150.40. The pair also at the upper channel on 1 hour chart. Below are the weekly and hourly chart.

50% fibonacci retracement of 118.80 (January low) to 150.72 is at 134.72. On hourly chart, 50% fibonacci retracement of 135.70 to 150.72 is at 143.21. However, 148 (broken resistance) and 145 (March high) area have to be broken first.

Weekly Chart

H1 Chart

That is all for now. Happy trading guys!

Friday, April 3, 2009

Entry: GBP/JPY at Resistance

Ok, this is definitely my last entry this week. GBP/JPY is at one of its previous highs at 148.58. The pair also almost reach 30 EMA on weekly chart. I entered short looking for 200 pips with stop loss at the resistance area. That's all. Bye.

Entry: EUR/USD Short For 50% Fibonacci Retracement

It turned out that I was not done for this week :P I entered short on EUR/USD last night. The pair touched its channel resistance and has been moving sideways. I entered at 1.3478 with stop loss around 1.3520. 38.2% retracement is at 1.3382 which is 100% projection of A to B while 50% retracement (1.3340) is at the broken resistance. I pretty sure this is my last trade this week. I also look forward on how the market react after tonight news. That's all guys. I'll update later. Happy trading!

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Closed: EUR/USD Reach Target

The pair has reach my target at 1.3400 after the EU bid rate come out higher than expected (although they still cut by 25 basis point). At the moment, EUR/USD has gone as high as 1.3492. The pair might continue moving up now with support at 1.3340. So, I may done for this week, considering NFP news tomorrow. That's all.. :)

Entry: EUR/USD Bounce From 50% Retracement

The pair bounced off the 50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2481 to 1.3737 last week and still hold the support. Higher lows has been formed since then. I have made some trade with entries at the support trendline. Buy signal appears today based on the 30 EMA system on hourly chart. However, TP level will be higher this time. Instead of fixed target of 65 pips, I want to try 1.34 and hopefully will be done this week. Below is the screen shot.

H1 Chart
H4 Chart
On daily chart, the 30 EMA which is near the 50% Fibo level seems to provide strong support. In other words, it is a buy signal also! :P I think EU may test the previous high or that resistance trendline at 1.3737, but 1.3400 is fine for me :)

D1 Chart

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

Closed: GBP/JPY

My GBP/JPY position was closed with 145 pips. The target was actually much farther than that, but I forgot to change the take profit order. I was kinda confused with the original TP for 30 EMA system. It was a great price to buy actually and should be around 500 pips now. Well, the trade had been made and now I will focus on the 30 EMA system on 1 hour again.

Monday, March 30, 2009

Entry: GBPJPY Buy Signal

I entered GBP/JPY at 136.69 (yellow circle), based on the 30 EMA system on daily time frame. The pair also touched the support trendline (magenta) at 135.70 area and bounce for almost 200 pips at the moment. Retest to 135.70 area is very possible. The first target upside is the 38.2% retracement of 215.85 to 118.80 at 155.87. Next target are 50% retracement at 167.32 and 61.8% retracement at 178.78. Stop loss level is below the trendline.

Saturday, March 28, 2009

Update: GBP/USD Closed 510 Pips

After pushing 900 pips on Tuesday, GBP/USD fell on the remaining days this week. The pair is now at the 30 EMA on Daily chart. I decided to exit the position with 510 pips and open again at 1.4330. It is a good entry signal I think: price at 30 EMA and QQE cross down. Stop loss also has move to 1.4000. Target remain at 1.6200-1.6428 (38.2% Fibo retracement). Another levels of retracement are 1.7331 (50%) and 1.8235 (61.8%). However, there are

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Update: Closed EUR/USD 100 Pips Below Target

I finally closed my EUR/USD at 1.3492, just around a hundred pips below my initial target at 1.3580. I know I should let it reach the target although it may not, but it is a 70% return to my account (949 pips). There is also a technical factor. The pair is at 30 EMA area on weekly chart and that means sell. Below is the EUR/USD weekly chart.


I still have GBP/USD open. The pair closed above 30 EMA on daily chart and seems promising to continue its way up. Okay that is it. Hope you guys also banked some pips in last night movement after the news. Happy trading guys!

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Saturday, March 14, 2009

Entry: Added GBPUSD to the Portfolio

GBPUSD touch 1.3654 this week but soon bounced to 1.38 area. I opened a position at 1.3812 with Stop Loss at 1.3494 low. I think it's a good price to buy the pair. First target will be 38.2% retracement area around 1.6428 and 50% retracement level around 1.7331 next. 13 EMA has just crossed above the 21 EMA on 4 hour time frame but the QQE indicator hasn't completely cross above the 50 level. Below is the picture.

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Update: Re-entered EU Long

Here is a funny story. Remember that I mentioned something about opening positions on E/U and G/U? I just found out that I didn't. Actually I did, but they are on virtual..lol.. In fact, all other trade I made this week was on virtual. See I re-install my OS last weekend and had to re-install all the softwares including the streamster (Marketiva), so the setting was on default. I closed all of the virtual trade and immediately open E/U long at 1.2543. I didn't re-enter G/U.

It was a stupid mistake, but I don't regret it so much. See, I was losing on 1 hour TF until Thursday. However, I got 2 nice trades on G/J last night (with live account). For my E/U position, I haven't move the Stop Loss, but I move the target further to 1.3580. Ok, have a nice weekend guys!

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Entries: G/U and E/U Long

I entered E/U at 1.2522 and G/U at 1.4071 for long-term position (could be week or weeks or months but longer than a few days :P). Both E/U and G/U are at the support (previous low), and I thought I take this opportunity. The target are 1.32 (around 700 pips) for E/U and 1.65 (around 2400 pips) for G/U. Both target are near the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement level. The stop loss is 70 pips for E/U. But G/U stop loss is almost 600 pips, meaning that I have to use smaller quantity. Hence the return for G/U will be smaller despite the bigger target. Below are the screenshots. Have a nice day guys!

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

Update: Daily TF Positions All Closed

I finally closed all the positions after 2 weeks with a total of 1164 pips, 480 pips on U/J and 684 pips on G/J. I closed U/J below the target (95.00) because it has failed to reach that level again today. I decided to exit on G/J as well. Below are the daily charts.



I feel good that I can hold those positions. It's like an achievement, considering that I suck at holding positions and couldn't stick with my own plan. And I think the key to that is knowing the risk and then calculate the size for each positions. There was a drawdown for about 300 pips before both of the pairs go up again.

As for the hourly signals, I missed two signals on Friday. At the moment I have E/U long (which is a bad signal) and waiting for G/J to touch the 30 EMA. Okay..happy trading traders!

Friday, February 20, 2009

Update: Daily TF Positions

I closed U/J position yesterday with 241 pips and still hold another U/J long at 89.84 and G/J long at 131.04. The target is near for U/J, which is at 95. However, I'm considering to leave it open and set SL at break even. Both G/J and U/J are around 400 pips so far and probably will retrace down. Honestly, I'm not sure what to do, close or leave them open. I think I'll wait for tomorrow, see what happen. Anyway, I was just testing the method on daily TF and the priority is still 1 hour TF.

Okay..tomorrow is my last exam :P wish me luck! :)

Saturday, February 14, 2009

Daily TF Entries

I entered UJ and GJ based on daily TF on Tuesday and Wednesday. I never cross any daily signal before and I thought it was worth to try :) Below are the screenshot. The thing with daily signal is the SL range: it's wider. It was 200 pips for UJ and around 500 pips for GJ. Hence, the quantity were smaller. And because I never done this before, I lower my risk percentage by 50% and the quantity became even smaller. However, I use the other 50%. I added a position for each pair. I closed GJ second position with 259 pips and decided to leave the other three positions for next week.

Okay, if the higher TF signals are more reliable than smaller TF, maybe I have to apply a new rules: avoid 1 hour TF signal if there is (or will be) a signal in 4 hour TF and avoid 4 hour TF signal if there is (or will be) a signal in daily TF.



Daily TF or 1 hour TF?
I still prefer 1 hour because its faster turnover. I haven't done any backtesting to find which of them gave higher return actually. Hmm..okay thats all. Have a nice weekend guys :)

Thursday, January 29, 2009

The Method

Okay, here is the explanation of the method:

Indicators:
EMA (30), QQE (5), Gann (30), 2 EMA Crossover (13 & 21), 3 EMA Crossover (5,13,21).
Additional tools:
Fibonacci retracement & trendlines.

Buy condition:
13 EMA above 21 EMA, QQE above 50 level.
Entry at 30 EMA (EMA changes every bar, so entry point needs to be updated each bar)
Initial SL level is the 2 EMA crossover arrow or just simply the support/previous low.
Target 121 pips ;P

Sell condition:
The opposite.

For SL, I wait until the candle closed across SL level. I backtested the method and got 50% return/monthly in average for Jan '08 - Mar '08.

Okay, got to go! My lecturer watching me.. :P Byee..