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Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Done for Today

GBP/USD did break the trendline as well as EUR/USD. Gann also gave signal but MACD still below 0 level. I closed my positions with 45 pips in total and decided to call it a day. Those pairs can still move further I guess but I have to take care other things for now and wont be able to monitor the trades. It's better save than sorry right? However, US session later on might be interesting. Happy trading guys:)


GBP/JPY Trade Update


I closed my short position from yesterday with -97 pips. The support remains at 211.06. I missed the long signal in 1 hour as well in 4 hour chart early today. It was another nice setup actually where Gann gave signal, price breaking trendline, and MACD above 0 level. I will stand aside for now and look for development.

GBP/USD

The pair seems about breaking the trendline again after bounces off 50% retracement level. So at the moment I'm waiting for the candle to close. If the trendline break, the might test 1.9790 resistance since the move from last week is an uptrend.

Monday, June 23, 2008

EUR/USD Trade Update

The pair has reached my target and it seems that there is a strong bounce at the moment. Well, Gann on 4 hour chart gave signal about 1 and a half hour ago. So the pair might drop further if the price break the current support. I haven't check another support level and will check it later.

My GBP/JPY position is still open. USD/JPY is facing resistance for now, which give me some comfort:) However I think the pair need to past through 13 EMA on daily chart, which is at 210.68. Okay that's all. Happy trading all:)

Nice Setup On GBP/USD


The trendline break and signal from Gann indicator followed with a nice move today. My TP was at 38.2% retracement level. The price went further actually and reach 61.8% retracement level, but I thought 50 pips was enough;)

Quick trade with EUR/USD today where I collect 15 pips. I entered after a trendline break but Gann indicator doesn't confirmed, not until an hour later anyway;P The pair has broken another trendline as you can see on the picture above. I already opened another short position targeting another support there. I'm a bit worry now because Gann has not confirm the down move in 4 hour chart. Hopefully it wont reverse.

I know I said that I will trade in 1 hour chart but the setup on GBP/JPY 4 hour is very temptig for me;P Gann has gave signal. The price is on the edge of breaking the trendline and MACD almost cross the 0 level. So I did opened short position targeting 38.2% retracement. It quite a move if it reach the target and may took few days, but the pair has fallen faster than rising so we'll never know. The thing that concern me is that USD/JPY isn't bearish at all. It might be a problem since GBP/JPY usually followed USD/JPY, especialy in US session, which will be open in a few hours.

16 - 20 June

I loss 9 pips last week. I got more winning trades actually but my TP was only 15 to 25 pips and the losing trades was around 100 pips. I also trade more pairs, looking for more opportunity beside GBP/JPY. As for the system, the Gann indicator really teased me;P My entries on the last few days were based on it. I still keep the 21 EMA and 13 EMA on my chart though, as support/resistance.

The pair still consolidating, but I expecting a correction to 208.11 area (38.2% retracement of 199.76 to 213.27) in the next couple of weeks or so. However it must break the base line around 211.40 and 210.68 first (near 23.6% retracement level). MACD cross below 0 level might confirms the correction wave.


Well, the purpose of this analysis is only to provide me the bigger picture. I still trade on 1 hour chart. The other reason might be because I'm bored;P Anyway, I'm not in my best mood at the moment because Italy has just lost against Spain. (But I didn't put any money there:D Thank God I didn't) The market has open now so have a nice trading week people!


Last Week Result

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Play With Gann, Fibo, and MACD

I couldn't wait until weekend to play with the Gann indicator;P I use 30 period in 1 hour chart. I really think it's a cool indicator. I add MACD and Fibonacci, and now I just open 4 positions: G/U, G/J, A/U, and N/U. All are long position and I entered after they break 100% Fibo level. The targets are 123.6% or the 161.8% level as shown on the chart below. Wish me luck!



Update:
I added long position on U/J. I already close all positions with 13 pips in total;P All positions didn't reach the target. MACD has crossed down except for U/J. I think those pairs are still far from reversing so I expect further move upside. Have a nice day all.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Yesterday Result

Hello guys. I got nothing to do so I just post yesterday result, otherwise I could mess up my trades today :P Well, second day this week ended red :( 5 trades from GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, U/CAD, and U/JPY. My GBP/JPY short hit the SL and I open another position. I closed AUD/JPY short on the edge of touching my SL. Total loss was 148 pips and gained 58 pips.

I also remove some indicators from my chart; stochastic and QQE. At the moment I still have GBP/JPY, AUD/USD, and EUR/USD. All short and red! ;P Another thing is about the Gann indicator. I'm not sure about the correct period. So far, 30 hours seems reliable to minimize whipsaws. However, I would try different period and play with it on weekend:))

Soooo.... That's all. I'm so very very hungry right now and hopefully all my positions touch my TP while I eat.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Weekend Breakout Indicator and Gann Indicator

At last! I tried using weekend breakout system yesterday and the result was good:) I downloaded the indicator from Forex Factory. The indicator calculates the high and low start from the first candle of the week. I set the indicator to calculate high and low from the last 3 candles. I set the target for a hundred pips. Take a look at this picture below.

Anyway, I said that I might trade other pair. So yesterday I trade AUDUSD, NZDUSD, EURUSD, and GBPUSD beside GBPJPY. I took 15 to 20 pips for each trade except AUDUSD (I decided to close it with +6 and wrap up the day). I didn't add position for GBPJPY since I already had a position from the weekend breakout. So I did lower my TP and trade more pairs.

As for my entries, finally I choose to add oscillator on my chart. I also add Gann indicator and QQE, which I haven't really learn about it:P But, I know it's to find the trend. So, as a result from last week market, I added MACD (12,26,9), Stochastic (5,3,3), Awesome Indicator, and Gann Indicator. Now my chart is look like this :(


As for the indicators, I downloaded QQE from Forex Factory. It was Auslanco Strategy. I got the Gann indicator from email which you can download it below. Well got to go now. Happy trading all.


Saturday, June 14, 2008

9 - 13 June

The result for this week is still not good. The pair has been moving sideways since Tuesday. The eagle breakout system was losing for 3 days. Obviously, the trend based system was losing too:(

I took notes on several things for 5-13-21 EMA system. First is entry. I think I should avoid entries right after crossover, maybe it's a lot safer to wait for the retracement. This thought was influenced by 1-2-3 price movement theory. Second is take profit. Using BBands as target is great but I will have to spend more time in front of my laptop, time which is hard to spare:P So, lower my take profit could be my only option.
The last is the pair. It wasn't a good week for GBP/JPY, but the other pairs was moving quite good. So, I might trade other pairs too for next week and see the result. To be honest, I feel like I tried to get revenge for my losses, tried to catch higher pips etc:P I know I shouldn't, so wish me luck! Have a nice weekend guys! :)



Previous Week

Monday, June 9, 2008

Trend Follower System 1 Hour

The title in forex factory is "Trend Follower 5 Minute System", but the man said on his blog that the system is just as accurate in any time frame. I got to tell you guys that I really like this system and I already watching it for few weeks now. I really like how the 4 EMA and 8 EMA crossover combine with the GMMA can give powerful signal. However, I use only the GMMA, 4EMA & 8EMA crossover, and 20 SMA in my GBP/JPY hourly chart.

Please check the system at forex factory or his blog. I post this system because I've just started to use this system on GBP/JPY 1 hour today (beside Eagle Breakout and 5-13-21 EMA system). Unfortunately my SL got hit :(
Okay hope this information can be useful.. :)




Saturday, June 7, 2008

2 - 6 June

The 5-13-21 EMA system produce 4 signals this week. Two signals followed by great movement where the pair reached target at 4 hour BBands. Two others went bad:( The 2 bad signals appeared after a trendline break.


I made comparison with the 5EMA and 13EMA crossover only (MACD). The entry signal produce by the 5EMA and 13EMA (red vertical lines) were more accurate in this week market.

As for my result, I lose again this week;P I lose on Wednesday and Friday (by NFP). I closed the winning trades with 50 pips. I know the target is the 4 hour BBands but I had to leave my laptop :P I also made 2 trades based on the Eagle Breakout. I got 50 pips and -81 pips. Plan for next week? I want to try the 5 and 13 EMA signal, with trendline of course. Have a nice weekend all:)


Previous Week

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Bollinger Bands as Target

Taken from John J. Murphy's Technical Analysis To The Financial Market, we can use the Bollinger Bands as target. Moreover, I will test it for the 5-13-21 EMA system that I've been using for the moment.

First of all, the target is the upper band on bullish trend and the lower band on bearish. However, some signal appeared when the price is near the target. So, my idea is to add another band set at deviation 3. And I refer to the 4 hour chart target, not in 1 hour. Here is the sample from yesterday signal:

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Chart

GBP/JPY 4 Hour Chart
On 1 hour chart, target is at 207.33 (which is fine actually ;P) and 206.10 on 4 hour chart, a hundred pips more than the 1 hour target. The problem is that we'll have to wait a bit longer to reach the higher target. Sometime, the price don't reach the target. So, trailing stop might be needed. I haven't met any kind of unusual condition regarding this technique. I never use BBands much before;P I will update any necessary input about this later.

Summarizing the 5-13-21 EMA system, we now have the alert, the entry, the initial stop loss, the position sizing, and I hope we can use the Bollinger Bands for exit. Otherwise I just use 50 pips target. Sorry if I post the system piece by piece because basically I was just thinking out loud:) Just check out 'Moving Averages' under 'Label' option. Have a nice trading week..


215.xx ??? Nope..

Hi guys, just want to follow up my last post. The pair open below the trendline this week and dropped for almost 300 pips now. The pair also break the trendline an hour ago, but I didn't enter. I want to focus on the 5-13-21 EMA system this week. So I guess this week we'll see another consolidation or it might test the support. Just to remind you that it's NFP's week..doesn't know much about NFP actually, but they always say to be careful on NFP's week:D Cheers..