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Tuesday, December 30, 2008

EU: Time to Sell

The pair has retest previous high and reach as high as 1.4361 today. 50% Fibo level (red Fibo) was broken earlier on H4 chart but retrace below the level again for the moment. The day (FxPro server) isn't over yet but it seems that the 50% Fibo level (red Fibo) has provided a strong resistance. Below are the charts. The pair seems to form a head and shoulder formation. I also add AB=CD projection which is near the target mentioned on my last post about EU (50% yellow Fibo). Time to sell? Maybe. The thing is that the price needs to break the neckline first to be sure and indicators on H4 chart still shouting my name, told me to buy. Okay, I'm sleepy already. Bye, see you guys next year :)


One more thing. HAPPY NEW YEAR !!

GBPJPY: Target Reached

The pair has reached the target mentioned on earlier post and a retracement is in progress at the moment. Below is the H4 and H1 chart. The purple TL is the current trend since the price touched the upper channel. If the price can break current trend (purple TL), then I expect a further movement up. The ongoing strong retracement is clearer at H1 chart. The candle closed above the high of the previous candle. I'm sure there is a name for that kind of candlestick formation, but I forgot ;P Anyway, I just wanted to share these analysis and I did not trade any from this analysis (trying to be consistent with 1 system :P). My next move is to order sell limit at 30 EMA on H1 chart. Thats all, bye.

Monday, December 29, 2008

GBPJPY: Lower TL Broken?

Below is GBPJPY H4 chart. Using the chart from my previous post, the pair has just closed below the channel (blue circle). The target is another trendline below (red trendline). Trade on your own risk :)

Sunday, December 21, 2008

Head Start: EUR/USD & GBP/JPY

Hi guys, notice that 800 pips spike on EU weekly chart?? The pair closed 200 pips below 50% level and just below 30 EMA. I don't think it will open above the resistance also. I add Fibonacci retracement of 1.2328 to 1.4718 (yellow Fibo) where we can see that it almost reached 38.2% retracement. I expect it to reach 50% retracement (yellow) first by next week.

GJ find its support at the last trading day this week. I drew a channel on H4 (green lines) and H1 (red lines). On 1 hour chart, it seems that it broke the trendline, but we'll if the pair open above it tomorrow. On 4 hour chart, the support line from two previous lows has been respected and give an opportunity to trade with better risk/reward ratio (targeting upper channel & SL below lower channel). Below are the charts.

Thats all for Head Start session. See you next week :)

Friday, December 19, 2008

EU Chart Update: Closed Above or Below?

EU retraced today after reached 61.8% retracement of 1.6037 to 1.2328. The price even stay below 30 EMA on the weekly chart at the moment. Below is EU weekly chart.



In my opinion, EU will continue south if it close below 30 EMA or 50% retracement. However, it also might retest 50% retracement before doing so. Therefore, we may see another spike next week. First target on downside is the support line shown on the chart. QQE cross also streghten my analysis since it usually signal a change in direction. I do not expect a retest to 1.2328 low, or at least until it breaks the support line on the chart. 
If EU close above 30 EMA or 50% fibonacci level, then I expect a move to 61.8% Fibo level again or until QQE yellow line is near 50 level. I do not aware of any fundamental factors that give a bullish sentiment for euro economic condition. Many company will need dollar to pay their liabilities and American MNC will have to consolidate their earnings at the end of the year.
I  also didn't and perhaps will not open a position regarding this analysis. I need to save the margin for GBP/JPY trades;P So, trade on your own risk okay :) 
See ya..

Thursday, December 18, 2008

EU Trade Update: Hit SL

My EU position hit SL at 200 pips. After 50 pips bounce from 50%, it continued to break the 50% level. Actually, I used to cut loss if the price breaks 61.8% retracement, but in monthly/weekly chart it means that the range will be huge and I totally forgot about this. Next resistance is at 61.8% retracement level. If the price closed below 50% on monthly chart, I may enter another short :). So I will check it again next year.


Wednesday, December 17, 2008

EU Monthly Chart: At 50% Fibo

Below is EU monthly weekly chart. EU retrace from 1.2328 low reach 50% of 1.6037 to 1.2328. On weekly chart, price is near 34 EMA. Target for downside is the previous low. I entered at 1.4110. I intend to hold this position until target. Who knows guys. It's seems like a good opportunity ;P 




Monday, December 8, 2008

November Result

I trade on 18 days out of 20 trading days last month with 25 winning trades and 13 losing trades. However, I lose 351 pips, where the first week contributed a lot. It seems like it become a regular thing for me: lose big and then tried to get it all back for the rest of the month ;P Below is the daily return in November.

My blog has been filled with nothing but monthly result lately and I guess I'm sorry for that. Two of my classes just ended so I hope I can spend more time updating my blog. If the results were good, I bet I wouldn't care ;p hehehe.. Ok..later..happy trading.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

October Result

I got 459 pips at the end of October. However, I lose 47,99% in term of money. I lose around 37% in the first week, tripled my account in the next two weeks, lose again in the fourth and then get some in the last week.

I tried to analyze the entries and I got 18 positions out of 24 that were based on the system, and one position managed badly (did not set initial stop loss).
Okay that is all for now. Happy trading traders :)

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Fibo MA Indicator

I made these 3 indicators using rainbow indicator templates. I only change the period of the moving averages. The idea was to use these MAs without adding them one by one on my chart, also it looks nicer ;P The lower fibo (blue) periods are 5 EMA and 13 EMA, middle fibo are 21 EMA and 34 EMA, and the upper fibo periods are 55 EMA and 89 EMA. My idea of using these indicators is crossover of course, but I haven't got the time to test them. I've been busy with college assignments :( Well below is the picture and I hope you like it.

Thursday, October 2, 2008

September Result

What's up guys.. September sucks! I'm sad to say that I almost bankrupt. I lose 97.83% from my beginning balance on September. I need to win 4500.10% from my current equity to get it back. Can you imagine that! I lose in just a week, with 5 positions, got margin call on 2 of them, and then decided to close the rest. It was when GBP/JPY took a dive on the first week of September.

Why? Well let's not talk about that since the reasons are the same like before. Since that loss, I got this post-almost bankrupt- syndrome, which is losing more:P Haunted by the losses, afraid to lose again, wanted to get revenge, etc. My trading performance was up and down.(see daily result)

The good news is I think I got my exit strategy for the 5-13-21 EMA system. I also add another EMA actually and will post the system within this month, hopefully. I will also add the indicators for the download section. Bye..;)


Saturday, August 30, 2008

August Result

I'm very happy to announce that I have gain back my capital, and with some profit:) (See Mid-August Result). This was indeed a very good month for me. But of course, I can get back my losses by adding new capital, and it was quite a lot of capital for me. I feel like my journey in Forex is getting serious more than ever. Okay enough of this happy thing! Below is August daily return. Zero percent means that I didn't trade that day.

I got 934 pips this month, which is 34.20% profit. I trade smaller risk than I used to. I didn't trade on Tuesday and Wednesday last week as well as yesterday. I got 23 winning trades and 10 losing trades in 2 weeks, with only one losing day. This is just one month and what I know is the market takes a lot faster than it gives. So we'll see next month;P I hope I can be consistent.

True Balance Sheet

I have another journal that kept all my results since the very beginning, which is in July last year. I used to calculate them as my learning costs;P Apparently, the profit this month is able to cover it all, boost my portfolio to the positive number.

I also calculate the operating cost (internet provider service). My parents still paying them so I calculate them as debt. I'm still quite far to pay this debt and it is a challenge for because the debt increases each month. Well my parent might not expect me to pay the internet cost, but I just like to know the cost. One day I will have to pay it myself.

I will talk about the system more next month and post the third part of Pairs Correlation about beta analysis. I hope that all of you had a good month also. September is ahead of us and we'll enter Ramadhan for moslems. Have a nice weekend guys!

Thursday, August 28, 2008

Pairs Correlation Part II

In the first part of this topic, we know that GBP/JPY followed USD/JPY. And to know where USD/JPY movement, I use the Dow Jones Index. Of course I can only use it in US session by hourly chart. I don't use the Dow for the Asia or Europe session. I'll talk about it later. Now let's see the DJ Index correlation table below.

I use daily close price data for this anaysis. I think hourly close price data is more reliable but daily price seems fine by me. The table above shows that USD/JPY moved to the same direction as the Dow 53.74% of the time in May, 75.86% in June, and 63.88% in July this year.

So how to use those data? Well the simplest way I can think is when the Dow is bullish, then USD/JPY also bullish, we long on GBP/JPY. So if I know where USD/JPY going to move, why don't I just trade the pair? Well because GBP/JPY is more volatile than USD/JPY and I feel more comfortable with that;)


Sample Trade
USD/JPY Chart 1 Hour

GBP/JPY Chart 1 Hour
I long GBP/JPY yesterday and today at the circled candle on the picture above. I entered based on 3 reasons: USD/JPY was at support level, GBP/JPY was also at support level, and GBP/JPY has been on a down trend (5-13-21 EMA System) since Monday, meaning that it could reverse anytime soon. What happened after that was the trend remains;P But the pair did retrace about a hundred pips:)

I will post the Beta Coefficient analysis next on the third part.


Continue to part III

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Pairs Correlation Part I

Since I trade GBP/JPY, I spend time a lot watching USD/JPY and GBP/USD chart, also DJI chart. Like some other tools in Forex, what I looked for is the correlation. Is GBP/JPY move the same way as USD/JPY or GBP/USD? Is USD/JPY move the same way as DJI?

I made some entries based on those pairs lately. Some entries didn't even confirmed by the EMAs. Nevertheless, I gained some pips with that method. However, without historical data and numbers, it was pretty much looks like gambling. So I made some analysis using correlation coefficient between those pairs as well as the Dow.

Correlation, in the financial world, is the statistical measure of the relationship between two securities. The correlation coefficient ranges between -1 and +1. A correlation of +1 implies that the two currency pairs will move in the same direction 100% of the time. A correlation of -1 implies the two currency pairs will move in the opposite direction 100% of the time. A correlation of zero implies that the relationship between the currency pairs is completely random. (Investopedia)

The table shows the correlation between GBP/JPY-USD/JPY and GBP/JPY-GBP/USD. On May, GBP/JPY moved 79.38% of the time whenever USD/JPY moves. We don't see any perfect positive correlation there but we can conclude that on May until June this year, GBP/JPY related more to USD/JPY than GBP/USD.

I will talk about the DJIA correlation to USD/JPY next in part II and beta analysis in part III.

Monday, August 25, 2008

Marketiva Deposit Methods


Okay, I just want to put a bit of technical matters aside from the market. The issue of how to fund our account is very important. There are several ways to fund our account. And since I trade in Marketiva, this post would be pretty much about deposit to Marketiva.

The first method is through wire transfer. I've done this method once. The money go to JP Morgan and then to my account. However, Marketiva use a different bank now, which is Crnogorska komercijalna banka (CKB) in Montenegro. The problem was my bank (BCA) cannot transfer the money to them for some reasons and they said that I will lose my money if it got transferred. Marketiva told me to use another bank (Mandiri) but I didn't check again. I use the other method instead.

The second method is via services like e-bullion, WebMoney, Liberty Reserve, and e-dinar. I use WebMoney and Liberty Reserve. In this method, first we have to transferred the money to them using another service before we transfer it to the broker, which are the exchangers in our city. For example, we can use Sentraegold or FastChanger (Indonesia). Of course, this method have higher exchange rate than bank rate. We need to work twice on this method but it is faster.

Some people like my mother didn't feel comfortable using the second method. But it never dissapoint me so far:) It's your choice really. Well I hope this information is usefull. The market will open in about 1 hour so have a nice trading week guys.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Update on Result

Since I have added more fund to my account, I will summarize my recent result to separate it from my future result. The result is very good. I got 277 pips which is 43.95% profit from my beginning balance this month (3.71% of my capital). I hope that I can gain another 20% of capital at the end of this month.


Limiting my trading day has been successful to kept me out from bad trades. I did not trade on Thursday and Friday last week, as well as yesterday. Although, I may trade several times a day (13 trades of 5 trading days). With more fund that I have now, I won't use as many quantity as before. However, my target is still 25 pips a day.

I cannot talk a lot about the system because it is not complete yet, but basically I trade based on 5-13-21 EMA system, QQE indicator, Fibonacci retracement, Pivot Points, and Trendlines. I trade the trend and reversal. I also use DJ Index, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD as indicator. That is all and I will update again at the end of the month. Happy trading all.

Sunday, August 10, 2008

Bar Close Alarm & Fibo Price Indicator

Here are two indicators that I put on any templates I use. First is Bar Closed Alarm which give sound alarm 2 minutes (adjustable) before a bar/candle closed. It is very useful for any breakout system since most traders will wait for the closed candle and see where it open.



DOWNLOAD HERE

Second is Set Fibo Price indicator. I like to use Fibonacci retracement as support and resistance level but it only shows the percentage. Adding the Set Fibo Price indicator to your chart and the Fibonacci retracement indicator will show the price anytime! Do I sound like I'm selling something? ;P Anyway the credit goes to the person who made those indicators as I can't remember where I got them. You can download it below.


Friday, August 1, 2008

July Result

Hello guys. It's been 2 weeks since my last post and the result is not so good. Bad news is I lose 2.44% of my capital, which you can see on the sidebar later. The good news is, of course, I do not lose more than that;P just kidding. Although the result is negative, I am confident with the system that I've been use.

I also want to add more money to my account to help me cover the huge losses and I will be happy to know what you think about this idea. Below is my daily return since the last post minus today's trade. I'm done for today with 31 pips and now I want to see how the market respond to the NFP:D It's kinda fun watching how the market fluctuate and the spread become wide. Well it's not so fun if I have an open position;P So, have a nice weekend everyone.



Friday, July 18, 2008

In Term of Money..

Guys, I decide to count my losses in percentage of money. The reason is simply because 1000 pips might not the same as the money I lose. So since my last post, I had lost another 10% of my equity:( To be accurate, I still have 10.89% of my capital, meaning that I need to gain 89.11% to have my capital back. I made a projection with 15% margin and 25 pips daily assumption, and it will take 61 days to gain that 89.11%. I will change the result table on the sidebar again and will update it next month. Bye guys.

Thursday, July 3, 2008

A Thousand Pips To Gain..

My losses since march has reach 1000 pips and I think I will take it slow for now. I still have 20% of my margin and I was able to withdraw 40% profit back in April. It could take 3-4 months to gain back my losses IF, the system reach monthly target and I can trade based on the system;P

I will simplify my Monthly result on the sidebar as it is ridiculous to show off my losses like that:P So I will update the blog next month and hopefully with green pips:)


Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Done for Today

GBP/USD did break the trendline as well as EUR/USD. Gann also gave signal but MACD still below 0 level. I closed my positions with 45 pips in total and decided to call it a day. Those pairs can still move further I guess but I have to take care other things for now and wont be able to monitor the trades. It's better save than sorry right? However, US session later on might be interesting. Happy trading guys:)


GBP/JPY Trade Update


I closed my short position from yesterday with -97 pips. The support remains at 211.06. I missed the long signal in 1 hour as well in 4 hour chart early today. It was another nice setup actually where Gann gave signal, price breaking trendline, and MACD above 0 level. I will stand aside for now and look for development.

GBP/USD

The pair seems about breaking the trendline again after bounces off 50% retracement level. So at the moment I'm waiting for the candle to close. If the trendline break, the might test 1.9790 resistance since the move from last week is an uptrend.

Monday, June 23, 2008

EUR/USD Trade Update

The pair has reached my target and it seems that there is a strong bounce at the moment. Well, Gann on 4 hour chart gave signal about 1 and a half hour ago. So the pair might drop further if the price break the current support. I haven't check another support level and will check it later.

My GBP/JPY position is still open. USD/JPY is facing resistance for now, which give me some comfort:) However I think the pair need to past through 13 EMA on daily chart, which is at 210.68. Okay that's all. Happy trading all:)

Nice Setup On GBP/USD


The trendline break and signal from Gann indicator followed with a nice move today. My TP was at 38.2% retracement level. The price went further actually and reach 61.8% retracement level, but I thought 50 pips was enough;)

Quick trade with EUR/USD today where I collect 15 pips. I entered after a trendline break but Gann indicator doesn't confirmed, not until an hour later anyway;P The pair has broken another trendline as you can see on the picture above. I already opened another short position targeting another support there. I'm a bit worry now because Gann has not confirm the down move in 4 hour chart. Hopefully it wont reverse.

I know I said that I will trade in 1 hour chart but the setup on GBP/JPY 4 hour is very temptig for me;P Gann has gave signal. The price is on the edge of breaking the trendline and MACD almost cross the 0 level. So I did opened short position targeting 38.2% retracement. It quite a move if it reach the target and may took few days, but the pair has fallen faster than rising so we'll never know. The thing that concern me is that USD/JPY isn't bearish at all. It might be a problem since GBP/JPY usually followed USD/JPY, especialy in US session, which will be open in a few hours.

16 - 20 June

I loss 9 pips last week. I got more winning trades actually but my TP was only 15 to 25 pips and the losing trades was around 100 pips. I also trade more pairs, looking for more opportunity beside GBP/JPY. As for the system, the Gann indicator really teased me;P My entries on the last few days were based on it. I still keep the 21 EMA and 13 EMA on my chart though, as support/resistance.

The pair still consolidating, but I expecting a correction to 208.11 area (38.2% retracement of 199.76 to 213.27) in the next couple of weeks or so. However it must break the base line around 211.40 and 210.68 first (near 23.6% retracement level). MACD cross below 0 level might confirms the correction wave.


Well, the purpose of this analysis is only to provide me the bigger picture. I still trade on 1 hour chart. The other reason might be because I'm bored;P Anyway, I'm not in my best mood at the moment because Italy has just lost against Spain. (But I didn't put any money there:D Thank God I didn't) The market has open now so have a nice trading week people!


Last Week Result

Thursday, June 19, 2008

Play With Gann, Fibo, and MACD

I couldn't wait until weekend to play with the Gann indicator;P I use 30 period in 1 hour chart. I really think it's a cool indicator. I add MACD and Fibonacci, and now I just open 4 positions: G/U, G/J, A/U, and N/U. All are long position and I entered after they break 100% Fibo level. The targets are 123.6% or the 161.8% level as shown on the chart below. Wish me luck!



Update:
I added long position on U/J. I already close all positions with 13 pips in total;P All positions didn't reach the target. MACD has crossed down except for U/J. I think those pairs are still far from reversing so I expect further move upside. Have a nice day all.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Yesterday Result

Hello guys. I got nothing to do so I just post yesterday result, otherwise I could mess up my trades today :P Well, second day this week ended red :( 5 trades from GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY, U/CAD, and U/JPY. My GBP/JPY short hit the SL and I open another position. I closed AUD/JPY short on the edge of touching my SL. Total loss was 148 pips and gained 58 pips.

I also remove some indicators from my chart; stochastic and QQE. At the moment I still have GBP/JPY, AUD/USD, and EUR/USD. All short and red! ;P Another thing is about the Gann indicator. I'm not sure about the correct period. So far, 30 hours seems reliable to minimize whipsaws. However, I would try different period and play with it on weekend:))

Soooo.... That's all. I'm so very very hungry right now and hopefully all my positions touch my TP while I eat.

Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Weekend Breakout Indicator and Gann Indicator

At last! I tried using weekend breakout system yesterday and the result was good:) I downloaded the indicator from Forex Factory. The indicator calculates the high and low start from the first candle of the week. I set the indicator to calculate high and low from the last 3 candles. I set the target for a hundred pips. Take a look at this picture below.

Anyway, I said that I might trade other pair. So yesterday I trade AUDUSD, NZDUSD, EURUSD, and GBPUSD beside GBPJPY. I took 15 to 20 pips for each trade except AUDUSD (I decided to close it with +6 and wrap up the day). I didn't add position for GBPJPY since I already had a position from the weekend breakout. So I did lower my TP and trade more pairs.

As for my entries, finally I choose to add oscillator on my chart. I also add Gann indicator and QQE, which I haven't really learn about it:P But, I know it's to find the trend. So, as a result from last week market, I added MACD (12,26,9), Stochastic (5,3,3), Awesome Indicator, and Gann Indicator. Now my chart is look like this :(


As for the indicators, I downloaded QQE from Forex Factory. It was Auslanco Strategy. I got the Gann indicator from email which you can download it below. Well got to go now. Happy trading all.


Saturday, June 14, 2008

9 - 13 June

The result for this week is still not good. The pair has been moving sideways since Tuesday. The eagle breakout system was losing for 3 days. Obviously, the trend based system was losing too:(

I took notes on several things for 5-13-21 EMA system. First is entry. I think I should avoid entries right after crossover, maybe it's a lot safer to wait for the retracement. This thought was influenced by 1-2-3 price movement theory. Second is take profit. Using BBands as target is great but I will have to spend more time in front of my laptop, time which is hard to spare:P So, lower my take profit could be my only option.
The last is the pair. It wasn't a good week for GBP/JPY, but the other pairs was moving quite good. So, I might trade other pairs too for next week and see the result. To be honest, I feel like I tried to get revenge for my losses, tried to catch higher pips etc:P I know I shouldn't, so wish me luck! Have a nice weekend guys! :)



Previous Week

Monday, June 9, 2008

Trend Follower System 1 Hour

The title in forex factory is "Trend Follower 5 Minute System", but the man said on his blog that the system is just as accurate in any time frame. I got to tell you guys that I really like this system and I already watching it for few weeks now. I really like how the 4 EMA and 8 EMA crossover combine with the GMMA can give powerful signal. However, I use only the GMMA, 4EMA & 8EMA crossover, and 20 SMA in my GBP/JPY hourly chart.

Please check the system at forex factory or his blog. I post this system because I've just started to use this system on GBP/JPY 1 hour today (beside Eagle Breakout and 5-13-21 EMA system). Unfortunately my SL got hit :(
Okay hope this information can be useful.. :)




Saturday, June 7, 2008

2 - 6 June

The 5-13-21 EMA system produce 4 signals this week. Two signals followed by great movement where the pair reached target at 4 hour BBands. Two others went bad:( The 2 bad signals appeared after a trendline break.


I made comparison with the 5EMA and 13EMA crossover only (MACD). The entry signal produce by the 5EMA and 13EMA (red vertical lines) were more accurate in this week market.

As for my result, I lose again this week;P I lose on Wednesday and Friday (by NFP). I closed the winning trades with 50 pips. I know the target is the 4 hour BBands but I had to leave my laptop :P I also made 2 trades based on the Eagle Breakout. I got 50 pips and -81 pips. Plan for next week? I want to try the 5 and 13 EMA signal, with trendline of course. Have a nice weekend all:)


Previous Week

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Bollinger Bands as Target

Taken from John J. Murphy's Technical Analysis To The Financial Market, we can use the Bollinger Bands as target. Moreover, I will test it for the 5-13-21 EMA system that I've been using for the moment.

First of all, the target is the upper band on bullish trend and the lower band on bearish. However, some signal appeared when the price is near the target. So, my idea is to add another band set at deviation 3. And I refer to the 4 hour chart target, not in 1 hour. Here is the sample from yesterday signal:

GBP/JPY 1 Hour Chart

GBP/JPY 4 Hour Chart
On 1 hour chart, target is at 207.33 (which is fine actually ;P) and 206.10 on 4 hour chart, a hundred pips more than the 1 hour target. The problem is that we'll have to wait a bit longer to reach the higher target. Sometime, the price don't reach the target. So, trailing stop might be needed. I haven't met any kind of unusual condition regarding this technique. I never use BBands much before;P I will update any necessary input about this later.

Summarizing the 5-13-21 EMA system, we now have the alert, the entry, the initial stop loss, the position sizing, and I hope we can use the Bollinger Bands for exit. Otherwise I just use 50 pips target. Sorry if I post the system piece by piece because basically I was just thinking out loud:) Just check out 'Moving Averages' under 'Label' option. Have a nice trading week..


215.xx ??? Nope..

Hi guys, just want to follow up my last post. The pair open below the trendline this week and dropped for almost 300 pips now. The pair also break the trendline an hour ago, but I didn't enter. I want to focus on the 5-13-21 EMA system this week. So I guess this week we'll see another consolidation or it might test the support. Just to remind you that it's NFP's week..doesn't know much about NFP actually, but they always say to be careful on NFP's week:D Cheers..